Fundstrat's Tom Lee Sees Bitcoin Breaking the 4-Year Cycle, Doubles Down on $250K Target

Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee has reiterated his bullish stance on Bitcoin, predicting the cryptocurrency could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 in 2026. If Bitcoin achieves this target, it would break the historical four-year cycle, which traditionally sees sharp rallies followed by steep corrections.

Lee made the comments on CNBC, citing macroeconomic tailwinds, reduced leverage after the October 2025 market shock, and growing institutional adoption as key factors supporting his forecast. He also pointed to the positive correlation between gold rallies and Bitcoin's price trajectory.

The market has historically followed a four-year cycle linked to the Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new Bitcoin. The last halving occurred in 2024, and the pattern suggested a bullish 2025 followed by a bearish 2026. However, Lee argues the traditional cycle is losing relevance due to structural changes in the market.

Why Did This Happen?

Lee's optimism stems from the reset of market leverage following the October crash, which he views as a positive development. He stated the crash eliminated excess leverage, potentially setting the stage for a healthy rally.

Institutional adoption has also played a key role in Bitcoin's recent performance. Lee noted that Wall Street is developing more blockchain-based products, and U.S. government support for the sector has increased. These factors could provide additional tailwinds for Bitcoin.

The relationship between gold and Bitcoin is another important factor. Lee pointed to historical trends where gold rallies preceded Bitcoin's moves. He suggested that gold's recent strength supports the case for a Bitcoin rally.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin traded near $94,000 in early January 2026, showing a largely positive start to the year. The market has absorbed the volatility of late 2025 and is now pricing in the possibility of a strong rally.

However, Lee warned that the first half of 2026 may be turbulent due to institutional rebalancing and a "strategic reset" in crypto markets. He described the volatility as part of the buildup for a stronger second half.

Despite the bullish outlook, some analysts remain skeptical. Peter Schiff, a long-time Bitcoin critic, dismissed the gold correlation argument, noting that Bitcoin and gold have historically competed rather than moved together.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the interplay between macroeconomic indicators and Bitcoin's price action. For example, the copper-to-gold price ratio and the ISM manufacturing index have historically aligned with Bitcoin rallies. As these indicators improve, the case for a Bitcoin breakout strengthens.

Institutional adoption remains a key focus for many analysts. As Wall Street continues to develop new products and the U.S. government supports digital asset innovation, the market structure is evolving.

Investors are also watching for signs of policy changes, particularly around federal leadership and regulatory developments. The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair could introduce uncertainty, which may affect both Bitcoin and traditional markets. Overall, the market is positioned for a year of mixed outcomes. While the first half could be volatile, the second half may bring more clarity and upside potential for digital assets.