Fund Manager Bill Miller IV Says Bitcoin Looks Ready to Go Again

Bitcoin price stabilization signs are emerging in early 2026 as long-term holders pause their selling activity and ETF inflows reverse after months of outflows. Institutional demand remains strong, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $335 million in inflows, the third-largest daily figure since October. Treasury firms hold $152.4 billion in BTC, reducing immediate sell pressure and suggesting a potential turning point in the market.

Venezuela's political developments have also captured investor attention. The ousting of Nicolás Maduro has led to renewed optimism for investors who held out on defaulted Venezuelan bonds. Investment firms like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price, which once held $50 billion in Venezuelan debt, are now seeing some of their bonds trade at 42 cents on the dollar, up from 32.50 on Friday. Distressed-debt funds have been buying bonds at rock-bottom prices since 2023, with some prices quintupling as sanctions ease and U.S. diplomatic engagement appears to improve.

SpaceX's potential initial public offering (IPO) in 2026 is another focal point for Wall Street. Elon Musk confirmed the company's plans for an IPO in 2026, which could raise up to $30 billion, making it the largest capital-raising event in history. Analysts highlight SpaceX's potential to build AI data centers in space, leveraging the benefits of cooling and avoiding local power pricing concerns.

Why Did Bitcoin Stabilize in Early 2026?

On-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders, those holding unspent transaction outputs for more than six months, shifted from distributing 674,000 BTC to net purchasing 10,700 BTC in a single day. This behavioral shift reduces supply overhang and indicates early stabilization of the price. Exchange netflows also confirm accumulation, with over $4 billion in BTC being moved off exchanges into retail and short-term holder accounts.

ETF inflows have also reversed, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $335 million in inflows, signaling institutional confidence after months of outflows. Institutional demand for Bitcoin appears to be recovering, especially as digital asset treasury firms continue to accumulate BTC.

How Did Venezuela's Political Changes Impact the Market?

Venezuela's political shifts are rewarding investors who held out on defaulted bonds for years. The price of Venezuela's 11.75% bond due in 2026 jumped to 42 cents on the dollar, while a Petróleos de Venezuela bond due in 2022 climbed to 38 cents. Investors are now optimistic that a more U.S.-friendly regime could lead to a debt restructuring and renewed access to capital from Wall Street and the International Monetary Fund.

However, the path forward is not without challenges. Venezuela must negotiate with a complex array of creditors, including the Chinese government, to restructure an estimated $100 billion in debt. U.S. investors are also constrained by sanctions, although recent developments suggest these restrictions may be easing.

What Are Analysts Watching for in 2026?

Analysts are closely watching Bitcoin's price action for signs of a sustained recovery. The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 32, indicating a cautious market, but institutional flows and holder pauses suggest a potential turnaround. Bitcoin's stabilization is seen as a positive sign for the broader crypto market, with some experts predicting new all-time highs in 2026.

SpaceX's IPO is also a key event to watch, as it could reshape the company's financial structure and provide insight into the role of AI in space-based data centers. Analysts like Cathie Wood from ARK Invest have projected a $2.5 trillion valuation for SpaceX by 2030, based on its Starlink and defense businesses.

Venezuela's political developments are another area of focus, with investors assessing the likelihood of a successful debt restructuring and renewed U.S. engagement. The country's ability to attract Wall Street capital and navigate its complex debt landscape will be critical for investors.