Full House Resorts' Q2 2025 Earnings: Can New Properties Drive Sustained Growth?

As Full House Resorts (NASDAQ: FLL) prepares to report its second-quarter 2025 results on August 7, investors are closely watching how its strategic investments in new properties and operational improvements are translating into financial performance. With a portfolio spanning five states and key initiatives like the phased opening of Chamonix Casino Hotel and a record-breaking quarter at American Place Casino, the company's growth trajectory hinges on executing its expansion plans while managing debt and optimizing profitability. Here's what the data and strategy suggest about FLL's potential.

The Strategic Bets: New Properties as Growth Engines

Full House's recent success has been anchored in its newer properties, particularly Chamonix Casino Hotel in Colorado and American Place Casino in Illinois.

Chamonix's Phased Opening:
The Colorado property, which began its phased rollout in late 2024, represents a critical growth lever. In Q1 2025, Colorado operations saw revenue surge by 33.9% year-over-year, driven by the casino's expanded gaming floor, hotel rooms, and entertainment offerings. Management's focus on high-margin amenities like gaming and hospitality—rather than just slots—could further boost margins. With the full opening expected by early 2026, Q2 results will likely reflect continued momentum here, though it's still early to see peak performance.

American Place's Momentum:
American Place Casino in Illinois delivered a record $10.9 million in gaming revenue in March 2025, a sign of sustained demand in the Chicago suburbs. Illinois' regulated gaming market, which Full House entered in 2022, has been a steady contributor. With a strong Q1 revenue increase of 7.3% company-wide, American Place's performance could signal broader regional strength, especially as Full House continues to refine its marketing strategy under new CMO Joshua Le Duff.

Grand Lodge Lease Extension:
In Nevada, the Grand Lodge Casino's 20-year lease extension finalized in late 2024 removes a key uncertainty. The lease, which includes a 5.5% annual rent increase, ensures Full House retains a prime Lake Tahoe location without costly relocations. While Nevada's gaming market is mature, Grand Lodge's stability provides a reliable cash flow base to fund expansion elsewhere.

EBITDA and Debt: Balancing Growth with Financial Health

Full House's ability to convert top-line growth into EBITDA improvements will be critical. In Q1 2025, the company's EBITDA margin was 19.2%, up from 17.5% in Q1 2024, reflecting operational efficiencies. However, its debt-to-EBITDA ratio remains a concern. As of Q1 2025, Full House's total debt was $332.5 million, with EBITDA of $18.2 million. Sustaining EBITDA growth is essential to reduce leverage and avoid restrictive covenants.

A key test will be whether Q2 EBITDA margins expand further, especially as Chamonix's higher-margin hotel and dining operations scale. Meanwhile, Full House's stock has risen 22% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500, suggesting investor optimism.

Risks and Considerations

• Execution Risk: Phased openings and new leadership (e.g., Brandon Lenssen at Chamonix) require seamless integration.
• Regulatory Hurdles: State gaming regulations can limit expansion speed. For instance, Rising Star Casino's ferry service, the MS Lucky Lady, may face permit delays.
• Debt Management: Maintaining liquidity amid capital expenditures is crucial.

Investment Takeaways

Full House's Q2 results will likely show continued progress in its growth markets, but investors should scrutinize EBITDA trends and debt metrics. Historically, FLL has seen positive stock performance around earnings releases, with a maximum return of 3.3% following earnings announcements from 2022 to 2025. Over the short term, the stock has a 57.14% win rate within three days, suggesting favorable market reactions to these events. If margins expand and leverage improves, FLL could justify its current valuation, which reflects a median target price of $5.25 (vs. current $4.80).

For long-term investors, Full House's regional focus—avoiding Las Vegas' cutthroat competition—positions it to capitalize on local demand. The Chamonix and American Place investments, paired with a stabilized Nevada portfolio, suggest a path to consistent growth. However, short-term volatility is possible if Q2 revenue misses expectations or debt concerns resurface.

In conclusion, Full House Resorts' Q2 2025 earnings are a pivotal moment to assess whether its strategic bets are paying off. With its new properties on track and operational discipline intact, FLL could be a compelling play on regional gaming growth—if it delivers the numbers.

Investment Thesis:
- Buy: For investors seeking exposure to U.S. regional gaming, with a focus on Colorado and Illinois growth.
- Hold: If Q2 EBITDA growth is tepid or debt metrics worsen.
- Avoid: If execution falters or macroeconomic pressures (e.g., consumer spending cuts) hit discretionary gaming spend.

Stay tuned for the August 7 results—the next chapter in Full House's growth story.