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The structure of the 15-minute candles reveals a series of alternating bullish and bearish moves. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared in the early hours of the session, followed by a strong bullish reversal later in the evening. A doji formed near 0.7508, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. Key support appears to be forming around 0.7208–0.721, while resistance is near 0.750–0.760.
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages intersected twice during the session, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA crossing above the 200-period MA in recent days, signaling a longer-term bullish bias. However, the 15-minute chart remains in a mixed phase, with price hovering near the 50-period MA.
MACD crossed into positive territory around 19:00 ET, indicating a short-term bullish shift, but failed to maintain the signal through the close. RSI hovered between overbought and neutral levels, suggesting that while momentum was strong at times, it lacked consistency. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the late afternoon, with price testing the upper band before retreating to the midline. This suggests increased volatility, but also a lack of clear directional bias.
Volume activity was uneven across the session, with a sharp increase after 16:00 ET aligning with a price surge to 0.787. However, this was not confirmed by a corresponding rise in turnover, which suggests the rally may have been driven by large, concentrated trades rather than broad participation. A divergence between price and turnover emerged in the final hours, indicating a potential exhaustion phase.
Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 0.7208–0.787 swing show the 61.8% level at approximately 0.748, which held as a temporary support during the consolidation phase. The 38.2% level at 0.758 saw strong resistance, and price failed to break above it consistently. This suggests that the 0.748–0.758 range may become a key battleground for the next 24 hours.
The MACD and RSI indicators are critical to the backtest strategy outlined above. The MACD golden cross, used as an entry signal, is best interpreted on an intraday basis, where the 15-minute candle resolution provides the necessary precision. RSI, while not a direct driver in this strategy, serves as a secondary tool to assess the momentum around the entry and exit points. Given that the exit is triggered just 15 minutes after the MACD golden cross, the use of high-frequency data is essential to replicate the rule accurately. The Bollinger Bands and moving average behavior also suggest that volatility is a key factor in assessing the success probability of the strategy, particularly in the context of rapid price fluctuations.
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