FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) Market Overview

• Price action shows a bearish 24-hour reversal after a strong rally in the first half of the session.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum and potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded significantly as prices fell below key support levels.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands show widening, consistent with increased market uncertainty.

The FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) pair opened at $0.8835 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.9118, and dropped to a low of $0.8465 before closing at $0.8616 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total 24-hour trading volume was 696,543.88, with a notional turnover of approximately $604,000.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a strong bearish reversal, with a high of $0.9118 followed by a sharp decline to $0.8465, forming a bearish “shooting star” and “inverted hammer” pattern near the peak. The price then fell below key support levels at $0.8900 and $0.8800, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern developing at $0.8901. A bearish trendline from the $0.9024 peak has provided resistance, now acting as a dynamic ceiling.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, with the 50 SMA below the 20 SMA. This confirms short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA is near $0.8950, with the 200-day SMA at $0.8700—indicating the price may retest the 200 SMA as a potential support zone.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, with both lines trending downward—signaling bearish momentum. RSI has dropped below 30, suggesting the pair may be entering oversold territory. However, divergence between price and RSI has not yet formed, indicating that the bearish move could extend further.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price dropped to $0.8465, pushing it to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The bands have widened from a contraction observed earlier in the session, suggesting increased uncertainty among traders. The closing price of $0.8616 sits near the middle band, indicating potential consolidation ahead of a breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during the bearish reversal phase, particularly during the candle that closed at $0.8579, with a volume of 56,092.11. Notional turnover also spiked during the price collapse, confirming the bearish sentiment. No divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting the bearish move is well-supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.9118 to $0.8465, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.8800 and the 61.8% level at $0.8655. The current price of $0.8616 is approaching the 61.8% level, suggesting this could be a potential support zone for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying key reversal patterns at Fibonacci levels combined with divergence in RSI and volume confirmation. A potential entry point may be observed as the price approaches the 61.8% retracement level at $0.8655. If RSI shows a bullish divergence while volume begins to decline, it may indicate a short-term countertrend opportunity. Given the recent bearish momentum, this setup could serve as a conservative short-term long entry with a stop-loss below the $0.8579 low.