FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) Market Overview

• Price tested prior high near 0.92 before consolidating into a bearish trend.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier, but momentum has reversed.
• Volatility expanded mid-night, with volume surging above 67,000.
• Price closed near 0.8862, below 20-period MA, suggesting bearish bias.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level near 0.8920 appears to act as a temporary floor.

Market Context and Initial Summary

FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) opened at 0.9016 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.9248, and closed at 0.8862 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET, recording a low of 0.875. Total volume across the 24-hour window reached approximately 721,339.07, with notional turnover amounting to roughly 653,726.32. The pair showed bearish exhaustion late in the session, with price breaking below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish engulfing pattern from the 19:30 to 20:00 ET time frame, confirming a reversal from a prior rally. A key support level formed at 0.875–0.885, with the price testing this range multiple times, particularly after the 03:45 ET low. A morning doji at 04:00 ET indicated indecision, followed by a sharp breakdown.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA currently lies above the price at 0.893, while the 50-period MA is at 0.896, confirming a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs are aligned above the price, suggesting continuation of the bearish trend. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that 0.8920 (61.8%) may act as a short-term floor, while 0.9050 (38.2%) has shown resistance.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI bottomed at 28 after the 03:45 ET low, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound. MACD crossed below the signal line during the overnight session, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 00:45 and 03:45 ET, reflecting heightened volatility during the downturn.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

The highest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 06:45 ET, with 40,515.56 traded FTT, followed by a sharp drop in activity as the price consolidated lower. A divergence between price and volume was observed between 09:45 and 12:00 ET, where price continued to decline while volume waned, indicating weakening bearish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the price breaks below the 20-period MA on a 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI above 50. Stop-loss would be placed at the nearest Fibonacci 38.2% level, while take-profit targets the next key support at 0.875. This approach would aim to capitalize on intra-day bearish momentum, while managing risk with tight stop-loss levels.