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FTI Consulting: A Strategic Gamble with High Stakes and Big Risks

Wesley ParkMonday, May 5, 2025 5:12 am ET

38min read

The world of consulting is all about brains, but right now, fti consulting (NYSE:FTI) is playing a high-stakes game of chess with its talent. The company has just announced a slew of new director appointments to bolster its compliance and forensic divisions—but don’t blink, because the other side of this move is a major headache in its Economic Consulting segment. Let’s unpack what this means for investors.

The New Hires: Strength in Compliance and Tech

FTI isn’t just adding bodies—it’s bringing in decades of insider expertise to tackle the biggest threats facing financial institutions. Take Alma Angotti, a former SEC and Treasury Department regulator now leading anti-money laundering (AML) strategies, or Michael Peters, a former German Federal Criminal Police officer now advising on sanctions compliance. These hires are no accident: they’re designed to dominate a market where banks and fintechs are drowning in regulatory red tape.

The Forensic and Litigation Consulting (FLC) division, which now includes 31 new Senior Managing Directors, is a growth engine. For instance, Syed Raza, ex-Comptroller of the Currency, can help clients navigate U.S. banking policy shifts—a critical skill as regulators crack down on everything from crypto to consumer lending. Meanwhile, Wolfgang Konkel and Steven Hansen are tackling operational efficiency and payments modernization, areas where demand is exploding.

But here’s the kicker: these hires are part of FTI’s global expansion. With over 8,100 professionals in 33 countries and $3.7 billion in 2024 revenue, this isn’t a niche play—it’s a full-frontal assault on the $400 billion consulting industry.

The Elephant in the Room: Economic Consulting’s Woes

Now, the bad news. FTI’s Economic Consulting division, which includes the once-lucrative Compass Lexecon unit, is in freefall. Revenue dropped 12.1% year-over-year in Q1 2025 to $179.86 million, and management warns of a $35 million+ hit to the bottom line this year. Why? Key talent left en masse late in Q1, and the fallout is just hitting now.

This isn’t just a blip. The segment’s struggles are self-inflicted and structural:
- Lost expertise: Departing leaders were critical for antitrust cases and M&A work, which are drying up anyway due to sluggish dealmaking.
- Costly fixes: FTI spent on forgivable loans and hired 31 SMDs in Q1 alone, but these moves raised SG&A expenses by $15–20 million in Q2/Q3.
- Regulatory headwinds: Geopolitical tensions and export controls are making clients hesitant to engage in complex advisory work.

The Numbers Game: Can FTI Recover?

FTI’s full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $3.66–3.81 billion is holding—for now. But this is a tightrope walk. The FLC division’s 8.2% revenue growth (driven by data analytics and investigations) is offsetting some of the Economic Consulting pain. However, if the latter can’t rebound, FTI’s margins could shrink dramatically.

The stock price is already twitchy. Shares are down 15% year-to-date, reflecting investor skepticism about the Economic Consulting turnaround. But here’s the twist: FTI’s valuation is cheap. At just 10x forward earnings, it’s trading at a discount to peers like Accenture (ACN) or McKinsey. If the FLC division’s wins materialize, this could be a steal.

Conclusion: Buy the Dip, or Bail on the Bureaucracy?

FTI is a story of two halves. On one side, its forensic and compliance divisions are firing on all cylinders, capitalizing on a world where every bank needs a lifeline to stay compliant. On the other, Economic Consulting’s brain drain is a ticking time bomb.

The data tells us to stay cautious but watchful:
- Upside: FLC’s 8.2% growth and $3.7B revenue base suggest FTI can weather the storm if it retains new talent.
- Downside: The $35M hit and rising SG&A costs mean even a modest miss on Q2 earnings could send shares reeling.

My advice? Hold for now. If FTI’s Q2 report shows stabilization in Economic Consulting and FLC’s momentum continues, this could be a diamond in the rough. But if the red flags persist? Run—because in consulting, brains matter more than balance sheets.

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