FTI Consulting’s Antitrust Play: How Bernheim’s Economics Edge Could Launch This Stock Higher

In a world where antitrust scrutiny is intensifying—from Silicon Valley to Brussels—companies navigating regulatory minefields are increasingly relying on experts who can turn economic theory into courtroom gold. FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) has just made a move that could cement its position as the go-to firm for these high-stakes battles, thanks to the strategic addition of Stanford’s B. Douglas Bernheim, a titan in industrial organization and behavioral economics. This isn’t just a personnel shift; it’s a signal that FTI is doubling down on a niche where demand is soaring—and where its stock may be seriously undervalued.

The Bernheim Factor: Bridging Theory and Trial

Bernheim, the Edward Ames Edmonds Professor at Stanford, isn’t just another academic. He’s a former expert witness in landmark antitrust cases, including high-profile disputes over tech mergers and algorithmic pricing. His work on behavioral economics—how people actually make decisions, not just how models assume—adds a layer of nuance critical to modern regulatory battles. Consider the EU’s scrutiny of Big Tech’s market power or the U.S. states’ aggressive pursuit of monopolization claims: These cases hinge on proving consumer harm or market distortion, areas where Bernheim’s expertise is unmatched.

But the real edge comes from how FTI is integrating his work into its Compass Lexecon division. The firm now boasts a team of over 700 professionals, including 20 newly hired academic affiliates, all armed with tools like AI-driven analytics and structural econometrics. This isn’t just about theory—it’s about turning data into defensible arguments in court.

A Tailwind of Regulatory Pressure

The timing couldn’t be better. Antitrust enforcement is at a fever pitch. The U.S. FTC and DOJ are targeting tech giants, pharmaceutical companies, and even labor markets, while the EU’s Digital Markets Act tightens its grip on gatekeepers. Meanwhile, private plaintiffs are filing more class-action suits than ever. For FTI, this means a steady pipeline of clients—corporations, governments, and plaintiffs alike—needing expert testimony, merger analysis, and compliance strategies.

The numbers back this up. According to Compass Lexecon’s own 2025 white paper, 78% of global executives expect antitrust scrutiny to intensify over the next two years. Yet FTI’s stock—currently trading at $35, down 12% from its 52-week high—doesn’t reflect this growth opportunity.

Why the Market Is Missing the Play

Analysts have focused on near-term headwinds, like softness in M&A advisory fees. But they’re overlooking the shift in FTI’s business mix. The Compass Lexecon division, now bolstered by Bernheim and his peers, is becoming a profit machine. Margins here are typically higher than in traditional consulting, with recurring revenue from litigation support and regulatory compliance.

Take the Saint-Gobain/FOSROC deal, which Compass Lexecon helped shepherd through global regulators. Or its role in the Belgian nuclear reactor case, where its economic analysis swayed the European Commission. These aren’t one-off wins—they’re proof of a scalable model. With Bernheim’s team, FTI can now tackle even more complex cases, from AI-driven pricing disputes to Big Pharma’s patent battles.

The Undervalued Catalyst

At a P/E ratio of 14.5, FCN trades at a discount to peers like Evercore (EVR) at 19.2 and Greenhill (GHL) at 21.3. Yet its antitrust division’s growth trajectory suggests it could command a premium. If Compass Lexecon’s revenue jumps from $500 million to $750 million over the next three years—a conservative estimate given the regulatory environment—FCN’s stock could hit $50+ by 2026.

The risks? Sure. Regulatory outcomes are unpredictable, and client demand could fluctuate. But FTI’s diversified client base—80% of its revenue comes from outside M&A—buffers it against cyclical dips. Meanwhile, the firm’s $3.7 billion in 2024 revenue and 18% operating margins provide a solid foundation for reinvestment.

The Bottom Line: A Buy at Today’s Prices

FTI Consulting isn’t just a play on regulatory fear—it’s a bet on intellectual firepower. Bernheim’s arrival isn’t just a headline; it’s a strategic masterstroke that positions the firm to dominate a $20 billion-plus antitrust consulting market. With shares trading at a discount and a catalyst-rich 2025 ahead, this is a stock to buy now—and hold as the regulatory storm unfolds.

Action to Take: Buy FTI Consulting (FCN) at current levels. Set a stop-loss at $30 and aim for $45 in 12 months. The antitrust boom isn’t slowing down—and neither is FTI.