FTI Consulting's 15min chart shows Bollinger Bands expanding downward, bearish marubozu signal.

Based on FTI Consulting's 15-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands are currently expanding downward, indicating a bearish trend. The presence of a bearish Marubozu candlestick pattern on September 12, 2025 at 13:15 suggests that sellers are currently in control of the market and are likely to continue driving the bearish momentum.

Gold prices have seen a significant upward revision in their forecasts by two major financial institutions, UBS and Commerzbank, citing anticipated Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks. UBS raised its gold price target to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025 and to $3,900 by mid-2026 UBS raises gold price target to $3 800/oz by end-2025^[1]. Meanwhile, Commerzbank forecast gold prices to reach $3,800 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 UBS raises gold price target to $3 800/oz by end-2025^[1].

UBS attributed the upward revision to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and dollar weakness, driven by geopolitical concerns and policy differences between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. Additionally, UBS expects central bank purchases of gold to remain robust, with estimates ranging from 900 to 950 tons for this year UBS raises gold price target to $3 800/oz by end-2025^[1].

Commerzbank's revised forecast also reflects the bank's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points by the end of next year, 50 basis points more than previously assumed UBS raises gold price target to $3 800/oz by end-2025^[1]. This indicates a more accommodative monetary policy, which is typically supportive of gold prices.

The gold market has been bolstered by its status as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold prices hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday, gaining more than 39% year-to-date UBS raises gold price target to $3 800/oz by end-2025^[1].

Despite the bullish outlook, UBS also highlighted a key risk for gold, which is the potential for the Fed to raise rates due to inflation-related upside surprises UBS raises gold price target to $3 800/oz by end-2025^[1]. This underscores the importance of monitoring inflation trends and Fed policy shifts for gold investors.

In summary, the upward revisions in gold price forecasts by UBS and Commerzbank reflect a bullish outlook driven by anticipated Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks. However, investors should remain vigilant to potential inflation-related surprises that could impact gold prices.