Friday's Flow: MSTR's Earnings Surge, HIMS' FDA Selloff, and PM/PFE's Market Context

The session opened with a stark divergence in price action, driven by discrete corporate events and a supportive market backdrop. Strategy shares surged 15% at about $123 after the bell, a reaction to its Q4 earnings report. The move was fueled by a beat on top-line revenue and explosive growth in its software business, which investors chose to focus on over the massive accounting loss tied to its Bitcoin holdings.

In a sharp reversal, Hims & Hers stock fell 10% Friday following an FDA warning. The agency signaled it would take swift action against companies marketing unauthorized versions of approved medications, a move that directly pressured Hims & Hers after it announced a lower-cost alternative to Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug just the day before.

This price action unfolded against a backdrop of market recovery. Stock index futures were rising, a day after a Wall Street sell-off, providing a general tailwind that helped amplify the moves in both directions. The setup was clear: a strong earnings beat for MSTR and a regulatory headwind for HIMS, both playing out in a market that was itself finding its footing.

Flow Analysis: Software Strength vs. Regulatory and Bitcoin Risk

The session's price action reveals a clear disconnect between underlying business flow and specific risk events. For Strategy, the core software segment delivered a strong positive signal, with subscription services revenue growing more than 60% year over year. This high-margin, recurring revenue stream is the engine for the company's $123 million Q4 top line and represents the durable growth investors are willing to bet on.

That growth story was overshadowed by a massive accounting loss from its Bitcoin holdings, which drove a net loss of $12.4 billion. Yet the market's reaction was telling: shares still surged 15% at about $123 on the news. This suggests the software flow was powerful enough to offset the perceived volatility of the Bitcoin treasury, at least in the near term.

The opposite dynamic played out for Hims & Hers. The company's strategy to capture market share with a cheaper compounded semaglutide version triggered a direct regulatory and competitive selloff. The FDA's warning that it would take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs landed the day after Hims & Hers' announcement. This regulatory risk, compounded by legal threats from Novo Nordisk, overrode any potential revenue flow from the new product, sending shares down 10% Friday.

Catalysts and Risks for the Flow

The narratives set on Friday will be tested by near-term catalysts and market dynamics. For MSTR, the key question is whether the software revenue flow can continue to dominate the narrative over the volatile Bitcoin accounting swings. The company's subscription services revenue grew more than 60% year over year, a powerful signal of underlying business health. Sustained growth in this segment is the primary catalyst that could justify the stock's 15% surge and support a higher valuation, even as Bitcoin's price volatility creates periodic accounting noise.

For Hims & Hers, the major risk is concrete regulatory or legal action. The FDA's warning that it would take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs is a direct threat. The company's strategy to undercut Novo Nordisk's Wegovy with a compounded version now faces a clear headwind. The risk is not just reputational; it is operational, as Novo Nordisk has already vowed to take legal and regulatory action. Any official FDA enforcement or legal filing would likely trigger another selloff, making the stock's 10% Friday drop a potential floor rather than a peak.

The immediate test for both stocks will be in premarket volume and price action. For MSTR, a shift in premarket trading could signal whether the software narrative is gaining or losing traction with active traders. Premarket sessions, while more volatile and lower in volume, offer a real-time read on how the most active traders are responding to the dual narratives of software growth versus Bitcoin accounting. A divergence between premarket price and regular session volume could foreshadow a continuation or reversal of Friday's moves.