French Trader's $28 Million Bet on Trump's Win: A Calculated Gamble Targeting Minimum $16 Million Profits
1min read Despite polls showing Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump, the market is leaning heavily towards a Trump victory. Stocks are bracing for a Trump trade, and gambling platforms are also betting on Trump as the next president.
Critics argue that mainstream gambling platforms have inflated Trump's odds due to a group of four accounts collectively spending $28 million on his win earlier this month. However, Polymarket confirmed on Thursday that all four accounts are controlled by a single trader, a French national with "extensive trading experience and a financial services background." The investigation found no evidence of market manipulation.
The trader's accounts were funded from a "well-known centralized crypto exchange," which other outlets have identified as the U.S.-based exchange Kraken.
As of now, the odds rate for Trump versus Harris stands at 63.7% to 36.4%. This means that the $28 million bet could potentially grow to at least $44 million if Trump wins, netting the trader a profit of at least $16 million.
Polymarket stated that its contract's performance was "generally consistent with the price movements on other prediction market platforms." The contract showed the odds of a Trump victory at over 60 percent on Thursday morning.
Elon Musk has weighed in, stating that betting markets are "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line." This sentiment underscores the belief that financial stakes provide a more reliable gauge of potential outcomes than opinion polls.
Polymarket also emphasized that "prediction markets are not opinion polls—they measure the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people who intend to take an action such as, in this case, voting on Election Day."
"Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms," the company said.
