Freeport-McMoRan Surges 2.6% to 52-Week High Amid Copper Rally and Supply Tightness

Summary
• FCX hits $53.275, a 52-week high, with a 2.6% intraday gain
• Copper futures climb to $5.4/lb, driven by supply disruptions and AI-driven demand
• Options volume surges in January 2026 calls, signaling bullish sentiment
• Southern Copper (SCCO) leads sector with 1.77% rise

Freeport-McMoRan’s stock surged to a 52-week high on December 26, 2025, as copper prices hit record levels amid global supply constraints and surging demand for electric vehicles and AI infrastructure. The rally reflects a perfect storm of tight concentrate availability, zero treatment charges in China, and pre-emptive stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. With FCX trading near $53.30, the copper giant’s options market and technical indicators point to a continuation of the bullish momentum.

Copper’s Record Surge Fuels FCX’s Bullish Breakout
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.6% intraday gain to $53.275 was directly driven by a 4.2% spike in New York copper futures to $5.8075/lb, the highest since July 2025. The surge stems from a confluence of factors: mine outages in Chile and Peru, zero treatment charges agreed by Chinese smelters for 2026, and U.S. tariffs spurring stockpiling. FCX’s exposure to copper—its primary revenue driver—amplified the move, as the company’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia and U.S. operations benefit from higher prices. Analysts note that FCX’s 31.9x dynamic P/E and 37.3x trailing P/E align with the sector’s premium valuation amid inflation-linked commodity demand.

Copper Sector Rally Intensifies as SCCO Leads Charge
The copper sector surged in tandem with FCX, led by Southern Copper (SCCO) rising 1.77% to $150.51. SCCO’s performance underscores the sector’s broad strength, as Chilean miner Antofagasta and Chinese smelters agreed to zero processing fees for 2026, tightening concentrate availability. While FCX’s market cap ($76.4B) dwarfs SCCO’s ($123.3B), both benefit from the same structural tailwinds: AI-driven infrastructure demand, U.S. tariffs, and mine outages. However, FCX’s higher leverage to copper prices and larger production scale make it a more aggressive play on the current rally.

Bullish Setup: ETFs and Options for Copper’s Extended Run
• 200-day average: $41.27 (below current price)
• RSI: 88.19 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.39 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 52.42 (upper band), 46.58 (middle), 40.75 (lower)
• Volume: 8.7M (61% of 20-day average)

FCX’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $53.765 (52-week high) and support at $46.58 (200-day SMA). The RSI’s overbought level and MACD’s positive divergence indicate momentum remains intact. For leveraged exposure, consider FUNDAMENTAL ETFs like Copper Miners ETF (COPX), though no specific ETF data is provided here.

Top Options Picks:
• FCX20260102C50
- Type: Call
- Strike: $50
- Expiration: 2026-01-02
- IV: 43.13% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 15.12%
- Delta: 0.8448 (high)
- Theta: -0.2009 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0701 (sensitive to price swings)
- Turnover: 160,280
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $53.275 → $55.94 → max(0, 55.94 - 50) = $5.94
- Why: High delta and gamma make this call ideal for a continuation of the rally, with liquidity to enter/exit.

• FCX20260102C51
- Type: Call
- Strike: $51
- Expiration: 2026-01-02
- IV: 42.94% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 19.49%
- Delta: 0.7603 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.2032 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0918 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 472,910
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $53.275 → $55.94 → max(0, 55.94 - 51) = $4.94
- Why: Strong gamma and liquidity make this a safer play if volatility stabilizes post-breakout.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target FCX20260102C50 for a 5% upside scenario, while cautious traders may use FCX20260102C51 as a lower-risk alternative. Both contracts benefit from FCX’s proximity to its 52-week high and the sector’s structural tailwinds.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 54.50%, the 10-day win rate is 54.84%, and the 30-day win rate is 58.82%, indicating that the stock tends to experience positive returns in the short term following the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.63%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for gains even several months after the initial surge.

Copper’s Bull Run Unlikely to Slow—Act Now on FCX’s Breakout
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.6% surge to $53.275 reflects a structural shift in copper markets, driven by supply constraints and AI-driven demand. With copper futures at record highs and FCX’s technicals aligned for a continuation, investors should prioritize call options like FCX20260102C50 to capitalize on the momentum. Southern Copper (SCCO)’s 1.77% rise reinforces the sector’s strength, but FCX’s larger scale and higher leverage to copper prices make it the superior play. Watch for a break above $53.765—a 52-week high—to confirm the trend’s sustainability. If the move holds, options with high gamma and moderate IV will deliver outsized returns as the copper rally accelerates into 2026.