Freeport-McMoRan Surges 2.65% as Copper Prices Climb Toward Record Highs—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) surges 2.65% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $52.29
• Copper prices top $12,000/ton, driven by mine outages and U.S. tariff speculation
• Analysts highlight electrification and AI demand as long-term tailwinds

Freeport-McMoRan’s intraday rally reflects a perfect storm of copper’s record-breaking price surge and sector-wide optimism. With global supply disruptions and U.S. tariff fears tightening the market, FCX has outperformed peers and leveraged ETFs. The stock’s 2.65% gain—on a 52-week high—signals a pivotal moment for copper miners as demand from electrification and AI infrastructure accelerates.

Copper’s Record Rally Drives Freeport-McMoRan’s Intraday Surge
FCX’s 2.65% intraday gain is directly tied to copper prices hitting $12,000/ton for the first time, fueled by mine outages in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru, as well as U.S. tariff speculation. Sector news highlights that global copper demand is projected to grow 3.8% annually through 2030, driven by electrification and AI infrastructure. Additionally, U.S. tariffs on copper imports have triggered pre-emptive stockpiling, tightening supply and inflating prices. FCX’s exposure to copper—its primary earnings driver—positions it to capitalize on these dynamics, with analysts forecasting a 31.5% year-over-year EPS increase in 2026.

Copper Miners Rally as Prices Hit Decade Highs—FCX Outpaces Peers
FCX’s 2.65% gain outperforms Southern Copper (SCCO), which rose 1.01%. Leveraged ETFs like the Themes Copper Miners ETF (COPA, +1.54%) and iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP, +1.196%) reflect the sector’s bullish momentum. Copper’s structural supply deficit—projected to reach 600,000 tons in 2026—has amplified miner valuations. FCX’s cost leadership and production scale further differentiate it, with unit net cash costs at $1.13/lb in Q2 2025, outpacing peers struggling with operational bottlenecks.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Copper’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 2.04 (above signal line 1.63), RSI: 88.62 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Upper $51.00, Middle $45.49, Lower $39.97
• 200D MA: $41.10 (below current price), 30D MA: $43.80 (below), RSI: 88.62 (overbought)

FCX’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with the stock trading near its 52-week high and RSI indicating overbought conditions. Key resistance lies at $52.29 (52W high), while support is near $45.49 (middle Bollinger Band). Leveraged ETFs like COPA and ICOP offer amplified exposure to the sector’s momentum.

Top Options Contracts:
• FCX20260102C50 (Call, $50 strike, Jan 2 2026):
- IV: 29.19% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 22.58%, Delta: 0.78, Theta: -0.137, Gamma: 0.111, Turnover: $268,510
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.59 per share (51.98 → 54.58). This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continued rally.
• FCX20260102C51 (Call, $51 strike, Jan 2 2026):
- IV: 30.21% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 31.86%, Delta: 0.65, Theta: -0.131, Gamma: 0.136, Turnover: $180,554
- Payoff (5% upside): $1.59 per share (51.98 → 54.58). This option balances moderate delta with high gamma, making it responsive to price swings.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20260102C50 into a breakout above $52.29, while COPA offers a leveraged ETF play on the sector’s momentum.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-day win rate is 54.69%, the 10-day win rate is 55.03%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.03%, suggesting that FCX tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 7.63% over 30 days, indicating that there is potential for significant gains following the intraday surge.

Freeport-McMoRan’s Rally Gains Momentum—Position for a Volatile 2026
FCX’s intraday surge underscores copper’s structural supply deficit and the sector’s alignment with electrification and AI demand. With prices near $12,000/ton and U.S. tariff risks looming, the rally appears sustainable in the near term. Investors should monitor key levels: a break above $52.29 could trigger a test of $54.58, while a pullback to $45.49 (middle Bollinger Band) may offer a re-entry point. Sector leader Southern Copper (SCCO, +1.01%) and leveraged ETFs like COPA highlight the sector’s strength. Action: Buy FCX20260102C50 for a high-leverage play on a continued rally, or COPA for diversified exposure to the copper boom.