Freeport-McMoRan Surges 2.6% as Copper Hits Record Highs—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $50.43, up 2.6% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $50.95
• Copper futures near $12,000/ton as supply tightness and AI-driven demand dominate markets
• Options volume surges on 12/26 expirations, with $48–$51 calls dominating the chain

Freeport-McMoRan’s sharp intraday rally aligns with a historic surge in copper prices, driven by global supply constraints and AI infrastructure demand. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and options activity intensifying, the intersection of physical commodity dynamics and equity market positioning demands urgent attention.

Copper’s Record Rally Drives Freeport-McMoRan’s Surge
The 2.6% intraday jump in FCX directly mirrors copper’s unprecedented $12,000/ton milestone on the LME. Bloomberg reports that unplanned mine outages, U.S. tariff speculation, and AI infrastructure demand have created a perfect storm for the metal. Freeport-McMoRan, as a dominant copper producer, benefits from both physical price gains and speculative positioning in mining equities. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($50.95) and the 30-day moving average ($43.44) further validate the technical alignment with the sector’s bullish momentum.

Copper Sector Leaders Rally as Supply Tightens
Southern Copper (SCCO), the sector’s top performer, rose 1.25% intraday, trailing FCX’s 2.6% surge. While SCCO’s smaller move reflects its role as a pure-play copper producer, FCX’s broader exposure to gold and molybdenum amplifies its volatility. The disparity highlights FCX’s premium valuation (30.2x P/E vs. SCCO’s 28.7x) and its strategic position in the AI-driven copper demand narrative.

Options and ETFs Position for Copper’s Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.87 (above signal line 1.53), RSI: 85.6 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $50.45 (upper), $44.95 (middle)
• 200-day MA: $41.03 (well below current price), Turnover Rate: 0.64% (healthy liquidity)

FCX’s technicals scream short-term overbought conditions but remain aligned with a long-term bullish trend. Key resistance at $50.95 (52-week high) and support at $49.91 (intraday low) define the immediate trading range. The options chain reveals aggressive bullish positioning: $48–$51 calls dominate, with high turnover on 12/26 expirations.

Top Option 1: FCX20251226C50
• Code: FCX20251226C50
• Type: Call
• Strike: $50.00
• Expiration: 2025-12-26
• IV: 29.01% (moderate)
• LVR: 53.12% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.618 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.241 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.222 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 100,019 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($52.95): $2.95/share
• Why: High gamma and moderate delta create a leveraged play on a potential breakout above $50.95.

Top Option 2: FCX20251226C51
• Code: FCX20251226C51
• Type: Call
• Strike: $51.00
• Expiration: 2025-12-26
• IV: 29.44% (moderate)
• LVR: 107.37% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.391 (lower sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.179 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.221 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 179,393 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($52.95): $1.95/share
• Why: High leverage ratio and gamma make this ideal for a controlled rally scenario, with lower delta reducing near-term volatility risk.

Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20251226C50 into a break above $50.95.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 54.78%, the 10-day win rate is 55.13%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.13%, indicating that the stock tends to perform well in the short term following the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.63%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains if the surge occurs at the right time.

Copper’s Tight Supply Demands Immediate Action—Here’s How to Play It
FCX’s 2.6% surge reflects a confluence of physical copper fundamentals and speculative equity positioning. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and options liquidity concentrated on 12/26 expirations, the immediate outlook hinges on a breakout above $50.95. Southern Copper’s 1.25% gain underscores the sector’s strength, but FCX’s broader commodity exposure and higher leverage make it the more dynamic play. Investors should prioritize the $50.95 level and monitor the 12/26 options expiration for directional clues. Watch for $50.95 breakout or a reversal into the $49.91 support zone.