Freeport-McMoRan Plunges 4.16% Amid Copper Market Volatility: What's Next for FCX?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $39.465, down 4.16% from its previous close of $41.18
• Intraday range spans $39.115 to $40.03, with 52-week high/low at $49.12/$27.66
• Q3 net income rose 28.1% despite lower copper production, but regulatory and supply risks persist

Freeport-McMoRan’s sharp intraday decline reflects a volatile copper market amid conflicting signals from sector fundamentals and macroeconomic uncertainty. With copper prices fluctuating on Fed policy ambiguity and mine supply updates, FCX’s 4.16% drop underscores the sector’s sensitivity to both physical market dynamics and investor sentiment shifts.

Copper Price Retreat and Sector Uncertainty Weigh on FCX
FCX’s intraday selloff aligns with broader copper market weakness triggered by two key factors. First, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price fell 2.4% on Tuesday as Fed officials signaled divergent views on rate cuts, pushing the dollar higher and dampening metal demand. Second, Chile’s Codelco announced increased output expectations, easing supply concerns that had previously driven copper to record highs. These developments undermined bullish momentum for copper miners like FCX, even as the company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings. The stock’s decline also reflects Goldman Sachs’ warning that the recent copper surge may not be sustainable, creating a bearish overhang for sector players.

Copper Sector Suffers as BHP Slides 3.21%
FCX’s 4.16% drop mirrors a broader sector downturn, with BHP Group (BHP), a key copper producer, falling 3.21% intraday. The decline reflects shared exposure to copper’s price volatility and macroeconomic headwinds. While FCX’s production challenges and regulatory risks add stock-specific pressure, the sector-wide selloff highlights copper’s role as a barometer for global economic health. Investors are recalibrating positions amid uncertainty over China’s economic recovery and U.S. rate policy, which together influence demand for industrial metals.

Bearish Setup and High-Leverage Options for FCX Short-Side Bets
• 200-day MA: $40.135 (below current price)
• RSI: 43.6 (neutral to bearish)
• MACD: -0.084 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band ($40.215), suggesting oversold conditions

FCX’s technical profile points to a short-term bearish bias, with key support levels at $40.215 (lower Bollinger Band) and $39.115 (intraday low). The stock is trading below its 30-day MA ($40.71) and 100-day MA ($42.70), reinforcing a downtrend. For traders, the 52-week low at $27.66 remains a critical psychological level. High-leverage options like FCX20251114P37 and FCX20251114P38 offer amplified exposure to a potential continuation of the decline.

• FCX20251114P37 (Put, $37 strike, 11/14 expiry):
- IV: 38.26% (moderate)
- LVR: 157.08% (high leverage)
- Delta: -0.173 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0128 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0981 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 14,774 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $2.465 (max profit if FCX drops to $37.53)
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a 5% drop in FCX.

• FCX20251114P38 (Put, $38 strike, 11/14 expiry):
- IV: 40.32% (moderate)
- LVR: 71.40% (high leverage)
- Delta: -0.3027 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0125 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.1269 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 6,614 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $1.465 (max profit if FCX drops to $37.53)
- Offers higher delta for aggressive short-side bets, with strong gamma to benefit from price acceleration.

Aggressive short-sellers may consider FCX20251114P38 into a breakdown below $40.215, while more conservative traders could use FCX20251114P37 for a balanced bearish play.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
Below is an interactive back-test dashboard that summarises how Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) performed when bought after every ≥ 4 % intraday plunge since 2022.Key take-aways • Total return: ≈ 29.8 % (annualised ≈ 10.4 %). • Max draw-down: ≈ 29 % – risk remains material despite the 8 % stop-loss. • Average trade: +1.2 % with a wide dispersion (best ≈ +19.9 %, worst ≈ –12.8 %). • Hit ratio and trade counts are available in the dashboard’s “Result” tab.Assumptions inserted for you 1. Stop-loss 8 %, take-profit 15 %, max-hold 10 days – these conventional levels keep single-trade risk symmetric and limit capital tie-up; adjust if your mandate differs. 2. Closing prices were used for execution to reflect realistic end-of-day fills.Feel free to explore different exits or wider stop-loss/take-profit bands; just let me know and I’ll rerun the test.

FCX Faces Near-Term Pressure: Watch for Breakdown Below $40.215
FCX’s 4.16% intraday drop reflects a confluence of copper market weakness, macroeconomic uncertainty, and sector-specific risks. While the company’s Q3 earnings highlight operational resilience, the stock remains vulnerable to further declines if copper prices remain pressured. Key technical levels to monitor include the $40.215 (Bollinger Band) and $39.115 (intraday low). Sector peers like BHP (-3.21%) reinforce the bearish sentiment. Traders should prioritize short-side options with high leverage and liquidity, while long-term investors may wait for a clearer breakout above $43.09 (upper Bollinger Band) before re-entering. Watch for a breakdown below $40.215 or a shift in copper’s macro narrative.