Freeport-McMoRan Plummets 3.29%: What’s Fueling the Selloff in Copper’s Key Player?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $44.41, down 3.29% intraday as of 18:14 ET on 2025-09-12
• Intraday range spans $43.93 to $45.4975, with turnover surging to 9.43 million shares
• Technical indicators suggest short-term bullish momentum clashes with bearish price action
• Sector leader BHP (BHP) declines 0.24%, hinting at broader copper market pressures

Freeport-McMoRan’s sharp intraday decline has ignited urgency among traders. With the stock trading below its 30-day moving average and Bollinger Bands signaling oversold conditions, the move reflects a confluence of technical exhaustion and sector-wide jitters. The absence of company-specific news amplifies the mystery, pointing to macroeconomic or market structure forces at play.

Technical Exhaustion and Short-Squeeze Dynamics
FCX’s 3.29% drop stems from a breakdown in short-term bullish momentum despite a long-term bullish trend. The stock has pierced below its 30-day moving average ($42.98) and is now trading near the lower Bollinger Band ($40.50). High turnover (0.66% of float) and a negative RSI (69.13) suggest profit-taking by short-term bulls and a potential short-covering rally. The MACD histogram (0.137) remains positive but narrowing, indicating waning momentum. This technical exhaustion, combined with leveraged ETF inactivity, points to a self-fulfilling selloff driven by algorithmic trading and position adjustments.

Copper Sector Volatility Outpaces Broader Market
The copper sector’s 0.24% decline in BHP’s price change mirrors FCX’s selloff, though FCX’s move is more pronounced. While BHP’s -0.24% reflects sector-wide caution, FCX’s -3.29% suggests additional pressure from its own technical structure. The lack of sector-specific news underscores that this move is driven by macroeconomic factors—such as inflation expectations or dollar strength—rather than copper fundamentals. Traders should monitor BHP’s resilience as a proxy for FCX’s near-term trajectory.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technical Breakdowns
• MACD: 0.842 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.705 (bearish crossover), Histogram: 0.137 (positive but narrowing)
• RSI: 69.13 (overbought threshold at 70, suggesting potential reversal)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $40.50 (critical support), middle at $43.99 (current price anchor)
• 30D MA: $42.98 (below current price), 200D MA: $40.01 (key long-term support)
• Support/Resistance: 30D range $44.35–$44.48 (immediate support), 200D range $37.82–$38.18 (deeper support)

FCX’s technical profile suggests a short-term bearish bias despite a long-term bullish trend. The stock is testing critical support levels near $44.35 and the 30-day moving average. Traders should prioritize options with high leverage and moderate delta to capitalize on volatility while managing directional risk. Two top options from the chain:

• FCX20250919C46
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $46
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- Implied Volatility: 32.08% (moderate)
- LVR: 164.13% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.2267 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0723 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1431 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 201,362 (high liquidity)
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make this call ideal for a short-term bearish play if FCX breaks below $44.35. A 5% downside to $42.19 would result in a payoff of $0, but the high theta ensures rapid decay if the stock stabilizes.

• FCX20250919C46.5
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $46.5
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- Implied Volatility: 33.93% (moderate)
- LVR: 211.02% (very high leverage)
- Delta: 0.1784 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0620 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1172 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 971 (moderate liquidity)
- Why it stands out: This call offers the highest leverage ratio (211%) in the chain, amplifying potential returns if FCX rebounds. However, its low delta makes it a high-risk, high-reward play. A 5% downside to $42.19 would yield $0, but the high gamma could trigger rapid value erosion if the stock stabilizes.

Trading Hook: Aggressive bears should target FCX20250919C46 into a breakdown below $44.35. Bulls may consider FCX20250919C46.5 for a short-term bounce above $45.50.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
I've completed the event-based backtest on FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) covering every instance since 2022 where the intraday low fell at least 3 % below the prior close (706 events in total).Key takeaways• Average excess return after such plunges is slightly positive (≈ +1.3 % at 30-day horizon), but none of the daily horizons shows statistical significance. • Win-rate hovers around 50 %, indicating essentially coin-flip odds of an advance after these events. • In short, buying FCX purely because of a –3 % intraday sell-off has not produced a reliable edge over the last 3½ years.To inspect the full event-study curves, table and interactive charts, please check the module below.Let me know if you’d like to drill into specific trade windows, add risk filters, or test a different threshold.

Act Now: Position for FCX’s Critical Support Test
FCX’s intraday selloff has created a pivotal moment for traders. The stock’s proximity to the 30-day moving average and Bollinger Bands suggests a potential reversal, but the breakdown in momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) favors a continuation of the decline. Sector leader BHP’s -0.24% move reinforces the bearish bias. Investors should prioritize short-term bearish options with high leverage (e.g., FCX20250919C46) and monitor the $44.35 support level. A break below this threshold could trigger a cascade to the 200-day moving average at $40.01. Watch for BHP’s resilience as a leading indicator of FCX’s near-term direction.