Freeport-McMoRan Plunges 3.78% Amid Copper Sector Volatility – What’s Driving the Selloff?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $44.185, down 3.78% intraday as of 17:43 ET
• Intraday range spans $45.4975 high to $43.93 low, signaling sharp bearish momentum
• Options chain shows 40.93% implied volatility on 40-strike puts and 32.48% on 46-strike calls

Freeport-McMoRan’s 3.78% intraday selloff has ignited volatility across the copper sector, with technical indicators and options activity painting a complex picture. The stock’s sharp decline from its 52-week high of $52.61 has triggered defensive positioning, as traders grapple with macroeconomic uncertainty and sector-specific pressures. With RSI at 69.13 and MACD above signal line, the move appears to be a mix of profit-taking and bearish sentiment amplification.

Copper Sector Pressure Weighs on Freeport-McMoRan Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The selloff aligns with broader copper sector weakness, though FCX’s 3.78% drop outpaces Rio Tinto’s (RIO) 0.19% decline. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions: RSI at 69.13 near overbought territory and MACD (0.84) above signal line (0.70) indicate exhaustion in the bullish trend. Bollinger Bands show the stock trading near the lower band at $40.50, amplifying bearish momentum. While no direct company-specific news triggered the move, macroeconomic factors—including inflation concerns and energy transition uncertainty—likely pressured the sector.

Copper Sector Mixed as Freeport-McMoRan Underperforms Sector Leader RIO
The copper sector remains fragmented, with FCX’s 3.78% drop contrasting RIO’s 0.19% decline. FCX’s underperformance highlights its higher volatility relative to global peers, exacerbated by its 28.22x P/E ratio versus RIO’s more diversified energy portfolio. While RIO’s minor decline suggests sector-wide caution, FCX’s sharp drop reflects concentrated risk in copper markets, where demand uncertainty and geopolitical supply chain issues persist.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts and Calls for FCX’s Volatile Move
• MACD: 0.8417 (above signal line 0.7050), Histogram: 0.1367 (bullish divergence)
• RSI: 69.13 (overbought), 200D MA: $40.01 (below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $47.47, Middle $43.99, Lower $40.50 (current price near lower band)

FCX’s technicals suggest a critical juncture: RSI near overbought levels and MACD divergence hint at potential reversal, while Bollinger Bands indicate oversold conditions. Key support at $43.99 (middle band) and resistance at $47.47 (upper band) define the near-term range. Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20250919C46 (strike $46, 32.48% IV, 170.13% leverage) for a bullish breakout, while bears could target FCX20250919P42.5 (strike $42.5, 37.21% IV, 138.23% leverage) for a short-side play.

FCX20250919P42.5 (Put Option):
• Code: FCX20250919P42.5
• Strike: $42.5, Expiry: 2025-09-19
• IV: 37.21% (moderate), Leverage: 138.23% (high), Delta: -0.222 (moderate), Theta: -0.0104 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.1222 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 14,643 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% downside (41.98): $0.52 (max(0, 42.5 - 41.98))
• This put offers high leverage with moderate delta, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakdown below $43.99.

FCX20250919C46 (Call Option):
• Code: FCX20250919C46
• Strike: $46, Expiry: 2025-09-19
• IV: 32.48% (moderate), Leverage: 170.13% (high), Delta: 0.218 (moderate), Theta: -0.0706 (rapid decay), Gamma: 0.1386 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 201,307 (extremely liquid)
• Payoff at 5% downside (41.98): $0 (max(0, 41.98 - 46))
• This call provides explosive upside if FCX rebounds above $47.47, though theta decay requires rapid execution.

If $43.99 breaks, FCX20250919P42.5 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20250919C46 into a bounce above $47.47.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study panel. It shows how Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) typically performed after any single-day close-to-close drop of at least 4 % between 1 Jan 2022 and 12 Sep 2025.How to read it:• Win-rate and average excess return are plotted for every holding day after the event (up to 30 days). • “Significantly positive” rows flag days where the average return is statistically above zero at the 5 % level. • In this sample (47 events) FCX tends to stabilise and turn positive within a week, with the strongest excess performance around days 7-22.Feel free to ask if you’d like different thresholds, a longer holding-period study, or position-sizing rules on top of this event signal.

Act Now: FCX at Pivotal Support Level – Watch for Breakdown or Rebound
FCX’s 3.78% drop has positioned it at critical junctures: RSI near overbought levels and Bollinger Bands suggest a potential reversal, but the stock’s proximity to $40.50 lower band raises breakdown risks. Sector leader RIO’s 0.19% decline indicates broader caution, but FCX’s underperformance highlights its vulnerability to copper-specific headwinds. Investors should monitor the $43.99 support level and $47.47 resistance. A breakdown below $43.99 could trigger a test of the 200D MA at $40.01, while a rebound above $47.47 may attract aggressive buyers. Watch for $43.99 breakdown or regulatory reaction.