Freeport McMoRan Plunges 16.95% On Record Volume As Death Cross Confirms Bearish Trend

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) experienced a significant downturn of 16.95% in the latest trading session, closing at $37.67 with an intraday range of $37.66–$41.99, accompanied by elevated volume exceeding 90 million shares. This sharp decline establishes a critical technical context for subsequent analysis.
Candlestick Theory
The recent session formed a long bearish marubozu candle with minimal shadows, indicating strong selling pressure and a decisive breakdown below psychological support at $40.00. Prior to this, three small-bodied candles near $45.00 suggested consolidation fatigue after peaking at $45.92 on September 11. Key resistance now resides at $41.99 (yesterday’s high), while $37.66 marks immediate support. The breach of the August low ($38.33) on high volume validates bearish momentum, with no reversal patterns yet evident.
Moving Average Theory
Price has plummeted below all major moving averages, signaling entrenched bearish momentum. The 50-day MA (currently ~$43.20) crossed below the 200-day MA (~$40.80) in early September, confirming a death cross that foreshadowed the current downturn. The 100-day MA (~$42.10) maintains a downward slope, reinforcing resistance. With current price ($37.67) trading 14% below the 200-day MA, the long-term trend structure is decisively negative.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a deepening negative histogram, with both signal line and MACD submerged in bearish territory—indicating accelerating downward momentum. KDJ (9,3,3) registers extreme oversold conditions, with K-value near 5 and D-value at 12, though the J-line remains pinned near zero. While this suggests potential exhaustion, no bullish crossover exists. The convergence of MACD’s bearish momentum with KDJ’s oversold state creates a tension between trend continuation and mean-reversion risks.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, ±2σ) underwent pronounced expansion, with bandwidth increasing 35% over five sessions as volatility spiked. Price closed below the lower band ($39.10), which typically denotes an oversold extremity but can also signal continuation in strong downtrends. The absence of prior band contraction limits predictive power, though the breach implies sustained selling pressure may persist until price re-enters the bands.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 16.95% collapse occurred on 90.8 million shares—the highest volume since July—validating bearish conviction. Volume consistently expanded during the September decline, culminating in capitulatory selling. This distribution pattern contrasts with muted volume during minor August rallies, confirming weak accumulation. Downside sustainability is supported by high-volume breakdowns below major supports ($40.00 and $38.33).
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plummeted to 18.7, deeply oversold and approaching historic lows. This reflects severe bearish momentum but aligns with the current breakdown’s magnitude. While such extremes sometimes precede relief bounces, RSI divergence is absent: prior rallies peaked with RSI readings near 60–65, failing to reach overbought thresholds (>70). Caution is warranted as RSI can remain oversold during parabolic declines.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the primary uptrend from the April low ($29.15) to July high ($47.21):
- 38.2% retracement at $40.31
- 50% at $38.18
- 61.8% at $36.05
Current price trades below the 50% level, testing the 61.8% support. The absence of bullish reactions near the 38.2% level ($40.31) confirms its role as resistance. A sustained break below $36.05 would expose the April low.
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence appears at $38.00–$38.30, where the 50% Fibonacci level, prior swing low (July 30), and 200-day MA converge—now breached on high volume. Bearish consensus among indicators (MACD momentum, MA alignment, volume confirmation) outweighs oversold signals (RSI, KDJ). A notable divergence exists between KDJ’s extreme oversold reading and MACD’s accelerating bearish momentum, suggesting any bounce may be short-lived without broader trend confirmation. Probabilistically, the weight of evidence indicates a high likelihood of continued downside toward $36.05, though oversold conditions warrant monitoring for technical rebounds near this level.