Freeport-McMoRan Plummets 12.88%: What's Behind the Sudden Freefall?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) slumps 12.88% intraday to $39.515, a 13.5% drop from its 52-week high of $51.45.
• Intraday range spans $39.455 to $41.99, with turnover surging to 41.56 million shares.
• Sector peers like BHP Group (BHP) edge up 0.49%, contrasting FCX’s collapse.
• Recent news highlights Indonesia plant outages and aggressive copper ore sales, sparking supply concerns.

Freeport-McMoRan’s stock is in freefall amid a perfect storm of operational disruptions and market sentiment shifts. With copper prices surging on supply risks and FCX’s own production challenges, investors are scrambling to decipher the catalysts behind this sharp decline. The day’s trading paints a picture of panic selling, with technical indicators and options activity amplifying the volatility.

Indonesia Plant Outage Sparks Copper Supply Concerns
Freeport-McMoRan’s 12.88% intraday plunge is directly tied to its recent announcement of operational disruptions at PT Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg mine. The company cited unplanned outages and increased copper ore sales, which have exacerbated market fears of supply shortages. This aligns with broader sector news of copper prices rising on Grasberg supply risks, as reported by Evertiq and PR Newswire. The immediate sell-off reflects investor anxiety over FCX’s ability to maintain production levels amid these challenges, compounding concerns about global copper demand outpacing supply by 500,000 tonnes in 2025.

Copper Sector Volatility as BHP Gains Ground
While Freeport-McMoRan’s stock tumbles, BHP Group (BHP), a key copper sector leader, rises 0.49% intraday. This divergence highlights FCX’s unique exposure to its Indonesian operations and copper-specific risks. BHP’s resilience underscores broader sector strength, as global copper demand projections and AI-driven infrastructure growth continue to buoy investor sentiment. However, FCX’s operational headwinds—specifically its Grasberg mine issues—have isolated it from the sector’s upward momentum.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on FCX’s Volatility
• RSI: 45.16 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 0.518 (bullish divergence from signal line 0.618)
• 200D MA: $40.06 (current price at 39.515, near critical support)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $39.515, below the lower band ($43.56), signaling extreme bearish pressure

FCX’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold RSI levels and proximity to the 200D MA. However, the sharp intraday drop has triggered aggressive options activity. Two contracts stand out for short-term positioning:

• FCX20251003P38 (Put Option):
- Strike: $38, Expiration: 2025-10-03
- IV: 39.57% (moderate), Leverage: 68.44%, Delta: -0.328 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0079 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.141 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 8,873
- Payoff (5% downside): $39.515 → $37.54 → max(0, 38 - 37.54) = $0.46
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this put ideal for capitalizing on a potential bounce from key support levels.

• FCX20251003C41 (Call Option):
- Strike: $41, Expiration: 2025-10-03
- IV: 42.31% (reasonable), Leverage: 97.52%, Delta: 0.253 (moderate), Theta: -0.0697 (rapid decay), Gamma: 0.117 (strong price sensitivity), Turnover: 78,913
- Payoff (5% downside): $39.515 → $37.54 → max(0, 41 - 37.54) = $3.46
- Why: High leverage and liquidity position this call for a short-term rebound trade if FCX breaks above the 200D MA.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20251003C41 into a bounce above $40.06, while bears should monitor FCX20251003P38 for a breakdown below $38.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
Below is an interactive results panel that summarises how FCX typically performs after suffering an intraday plunge of 13 % or more (measured from high to low) during the period 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-24.Key take-aways you may want to note while reviewing the panel • Only 3 such severe intraday drops occurred in the sample (April–July 2025). • FCX rallied strongly afterwards: median return +14.9 % after 10 trading days, +27.3 % after 30 days, with 100 % win-rate over most holding horizons. • Benchmark (S&P 500) moved roughly +1 % over the same 30-day windows, so post-plunge rebounds were clearly FCX-specific. Assumptions & parameter choices (auto-filled for you) 1. “Intraday plunge” defined as (High – Low) / High ≥ 13 % on the day – broader than a close-to-open change, which returned no valid events. 2. Analysis window: 30 trading days post-event, covering the practical swing-trade horizon most investors care about. 3. Backtest period capped at today (2025-09-24) to match your request “from 2022 to now.” Feel free to drill into the interactive table/plots, or let me know if you’d like to test alternative plunge thresholds, longer look-back periods, or add stop-loss / take-profit overlays.

Act Now: FCX at Pivotal Crossroads
Freeport-McMoRan’s 12.88% drop has created a high-stakes inflection point. The stock’s proximity to the 200D MA and oversold RSI suggest a potential rebound, but the Indonesia plant outage and copper supply risks remain critical headwinds. Investors should watch for a breakdown below $38 (support) or a breakout above $40.06 (200D MA) to gauge the next move. Meanwhile, sector leader BHP’s 0.49% gain highlights the broader copper sector’s resilience. Watch for $38 breakdown or regulatory updates on Grasberg operations.