Freeport-McMoRan: JPM's Top Pick for Copper Exposure

Freeport-McMoRan is rated top pick at JPM for investors seeking copper exposure. The company's stock dipped 0.9% in Wednesday's trading despite Comex copper prices hitting an all-time high after President Trump announced plans to impose larger-than-expected tariffs on metal imports. The move is seen as a bullish sign for the copper market, making Freeport-McMoRan an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the metal's surge.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) saw its stock dip by 0.9% in Wednesday's trading, despite Comex copper prices hitting an all-time high following President Trump's announcement of larger-than-expected tariffs on metal imports. The company's stock performance reflects the market's cautious response to the tariffs' potential impact, but analysts remain bullish on Freeport-McMoRan's prospects in the copper market.

J.P. Morgan analysts led by Bill Peterson rated Freeport-McMoRan as the top pick for investors seeking copper exposure. The analysts highlighted the company's strong operational performance, gold by-product credits driving industry-leading unit costs at the Grasberg mine, and its outsized U.S. exposure relative to global peers [1]. Every $0.10/lb Comex copper price premium to LME currently drives an incremental $135M/year EBITDA and cash flow from operations for Freeport-McMoRan, largely due to its U.S. assets' lack of royalties and net operating losses (NOLs) [1].

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs' implementation, J.P. Morgan expects Freeport-McMoRan to continue delivering incremental shareholder returns. The analysts anticipate a continuation of buybacks following Q1's $55M of buybacks, even if the Comex premium does not fully rebase to 50% [1]. Additionally, Morgan Stanley analyst Carlos de Alba sees Freeport-McMoRan as the best-positioned company to benefit from new tariffs due to its strong connections to the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) options and futures market [2].

Freeport-McMoRan's CEO Kathleen Quirk has outlined plans to unlock an additional 1Blbpa of copper production from its U.S. assets, tapping into the growing global demand and scarcity of major greenfield projects. The company aims to achieve this through initiatives such as the Leach to the Last Drop program, which uses new leaching technologies to recover additional copper from previously mined material, and expansions at the Bagdad and Safford operations in Arizona [4].

The positive backdrop for U.S. copper producers, driven by strong global demand and constrained supply, further bolsters Freeport-McMoRan's appeal. The company's ability to expand existing operations and capitalize on the copper shortage positions it as an attractive investment option for those seeking exposure to the metal's surge.

References:
[1] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4466237-freeport-mcmoran-rated-top-pick-at-jpm-for-investors-seeking-copper-exposure
[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/copper-prices-trump-tariffs-commodities-trade-war-fcx-scco-2025-7
[3] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3T517X:0-freeport-mcmoran-rises-as-trump-to-impose-50-tariff-on-us-copper-imports/
[4] https://www.mining-journal.com/base-metals/news-analysis/4516504/freeport-ceo-targets-1blb-us-copper-surge