Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Stock: What to Expect Ahead of Q4 Earnings

Alright, fellow investors, let's dive into the latest buzz surrounding Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) as we approach its Q4 earnings report. Buckle up, because we're going to explore the key drivers, analyst expectations, and the overall sentiment surrounding this mining giant.

First things first, let's address the elephant in the room: FCX's stock performance over the past year. With a gain of 5.6%, it's clear that the company hasn't quite kept pace with its industry peers, who have seen a 14.1% rise. But why the discrepancy? Well, it all boils down to a few key factors.

1. Copper Prices: As a copper-focused mining company, FCX's earnings and revenue are heavily influenced by global copper price fluctuations. Unfortunately, copper prices have been volatile, with a notable decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's fourth-quarter average realized price for copper currently stands at $4.06 per pound, indicating a sequential decline of 5.6%.
2. Copper Sales Volumes: Lower sales volumes have also impacted FCX's performance. In the third quarter, the company's copper sales volumes fell roughly 7% year over year, primarily due to the timing of shipments and reduced ore grades and operating rates in North America. FCX expects consolidated copper sales of 980 million pounds for the fourth quarter, suggesting a decline from 1,035 million pounds in the prior quarter.