Franco Nevada Stock Drops 5.57% In Two Days Amid Heavy Selling Pressure

Franco-nevada (FNV) concluded the most recent session at $167.21, marking a 3.06% decline and extending its losing streak to two consecutive days with a cumulative 5.57% drop. This downward momentum occurred alongside above-average trading volume of 1.08 million shares, suggesting heightened selling pressure. The following technical analysis evaluates this price action within the broader context of historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal concerning signals. The June 5th session formed a shooting star pattern with an intraday high of $179.99 and close at $172.49, indicating rejection near psychological resistance at $180. This was followed by two bearish engulfing candles on June 5th-6th, confirming selling momentum. Key support emerges at $165.86 (June 6th low), aligned with the March 2025 consolidation zone. A failure to hold this level may trigger further downside toward $158-$160, while overhead resistance remains firm at $172.50 (recent breakdown point) and the $179-$180 swing high.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($167.80) currently converges with the 100-day MA ($168.20), creating a critical resistance cluster. The sustained breach below these levels during the recent selloff signals weakening intermediate momentum. Longer-term support resides at the rising 200-day MA ($155.80), approximately 7% below current prices. The emerging death cross between shorter-term MAs and persistent trading below the 50/100-day confluence zone may indicate a developing downtrend, though the upward-sloping 200-day MA continues to suggest the primary trend remains neutral-bullish.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows accelerating negative momentum, with the MACD line (short-term EMA) diving below its signal line after June 3rd. KDJ readings plunged from overbought territory (>80%K) in early June to current levels (K=35, D=42, J=21), approaching oversold conditions but not yet extreme. While KDJ's downward slope supports near-term bearishness, its position above the 20-threshold suggests room for further downside before a technical rebound becomes probable. This divergence from MACD’s decisively bearish trajectory warrants caution.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply during the June 5th-6th decline after a prolonged contraction period in May, confirming a volatility breakout to the downside. Price closed near the lower band ($166.20) on June 6th, indicating oversold intra-band conditions. The decisive break below the 20-day moving average (middle band, now at $170.50) reinforces bearish control. A rebound may encounter initial resistance at the middle band, while sustained trading below the lower band remains historically unsustainable and may prompt a technical bounce.
Volume-Price Relationship
The two-day selloff was validated by elevated volume, with turnover exceeding the 30-day average by 15% on June 5th-6th. This distribution pattern contrasts with the May recovery rally, where price advances were accompanied by declining volume—a bearish divergence. Notably, the June 2nd upsurge to $178.17 occurred on below-average volume, undermining its sustainability. Current volume patterns confirm capitulation, though washout volume typical of bottoms has not yet materialized.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 38 reflects a rapid descent from overbought conditions (71 on June 3rd) to neutral territory. While not yet oversold (<30), the momentum shift is significant, marking the fastest RSI decline in three months. This deterioration suggests weakening buying pressure, though it lacks the extreme readings that typically precede reversals. Notably, RSI has not yet confirmed the price low—if it forms a higher low against a lower price low, that may signal impending bullish divergence.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high ($179.99 on June 5) and the April swing low ($145.39 on April 9), critical retracement zones emerge. The 38.2% retracement ($166.77) provided initial support on June 6th’s close ($167.21). A breakdown here may target the 50% level ($162.69), which aligns with the 200-day MA and March support. Confluence between the 61.8% retracement ($158.60) and February’s consolidation high ($159.50) creates a high-probability reversal zone should selling intensify. The 23.6% level ($171.82) now serves as immediate resistance.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals strengthens the near-term cautionary outlook: volume validates the breakdown below moving average confluence ($167.80-$168.20), MACD’s negative cross aligns with Bollinger Band downside expansion, and RSI deterioration coincides with Fibonacci resistance at $172.50. A notable divergence exists between oversold KDJ positioning and RSI’s neutral reading, suggesting momentum indicators haven’t uniformly confirmed a bottom. Ultimately, the $165-$167 zone represents critical short-term support, combining the recent low, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and February/March resistance flip level. Failure here may accelerate losses toward $158-$160, while recovery above $172.50 would undermine the bearish thesis.