Franco Nevada Rises 3.1% Extending Rally To 5.57% On Technical Breakout

Franco-nevada (FNV) rose 3.10% in the most recent session, marking its third consecutive day of gains with a cumulative 5.57% advance. This momentum occurs within a broader technical context that warrants multi-indicator examination.
Candlestick Theory
The three-day rally culminated in a strong bullish candle on August 4th (close: $166.70, high: $166.97), overcoming resistance near $162.75 formed by July 29th's high. Recent price action shows higher lows since the July 18th trough at $154.11, establishing intermediate support at $157.91 (July 30th low). The $167-170 zone emerges as critical resistance, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (discussed later) and June 5th's swing high at $179.99.
Moving Average Theory
FNV trades above all key moving averages, with the 50-day MA ($162.90) maintaining its uptrend above the 100-day ($159.80) and 200-day MA ($147.60). This configuration confirms the primary bullish trend. The recent bounce off the 100-day MA in late July reinforced dynamic support, while the 50-day MA now provides a confluence floor with the $162.75 price resistance-turned-support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) generated a bullish crossover on August 1st as the histogram turned positive, signaling accelerating upside momentum. This aligns with KDJ (14,3,3) where the %K line (82) crossed above %D (75), entering overbought territory. While the KDJ reading suggests short-term overheating, the MACD’s upward trajectory indicates room for continuation before a potential mean-reversion signal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded as price breached the upper band ($164.80) on August 4th, confirming strong directional conviction after the July squeeze (band width contraction to 2.8%). This breakout targets the $170-172 territory, though mean-reversion pressures may test the midline ($161.20) as immediate support if profit-taking emerges.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rally’s volume profile shows mixed signals: August 1st’s 1.47% gain occurred on elevated volume (898,949 shares), but August 4th’s 3.10% surge saw notably lighter participation (371,869 shares). This divergence warrants caution—renewed volume expansion is needed to validate sustainability. Supportive volume appeared during the July 30th sell-off (577,376 shares), indicating absorption at $157-159.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (64) retreated from near-overbought conditions after peaking at 69 during June’s high, now reflecting balanced momentum. Current readings suggest room for upside before the >70 overbought threshold. However, its failure to breach 70 during this rally diverges mildly from price strength, hinting at latent exhaustion risk if buyers hesitate near the $167 resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the May-June decline (swing high: $179.99; swing low: $154.40) reveals significant confluences. The 50% retracement ($167.20) aligns precisely with June’s breakdown point and caps the recent advance. A decisive close above this level would target the 61.8% retracement at $170.25. Downside support clusters between the 38.2% ($164.20) and 23.6% ($160.45) levels, bolstered by the 100-day MA and volume-based demand.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple technical factors align bullishly: moving averages maintain their ascending hierarchy, MACD confirms momentum resurgence, and Bollinger Band expansion validates the breakout. However, caution arises from the RSI divergence, Fibonacci resistance at $167.20, and declining volume during the climax rally. Confluent support near $162.75 (price/50-day MA) and resistance at $167.20 (Fibonacci/price structure) define the tactical range. Sustained closes above $167.20 on expanded volume would confirm a bullish resolution targeting $170-172, while failure to hold $162.75 may trigger consolidation toward $159-161. The weight of evidence currently favors upside continuation with elevated volatility near technical pivots.