Franco-Nevada Plunges 4.82% to $203.78 as Bearish Signals Dominate Charts

Candlestick Theory
Franco-Nevada exhibits a pronounced bearish trend in recent sessions, with the latest candle posting a 4.82% decline to $203.78 on elevated volume. This marks three consecutive bearish candles, forming a "Three Black Crows" pattern—a strong reversal signal following the October high near $225. Key support now resides at the psychological $200 level, reinforced by the August 2025 swing low of $197. Resistance is established at $215 (previous support) and $222, aligning with the 20-day moving average and recent failed bounces. The extended upper wick on October 8th ($222 high versus $214 close) underscores selling pressure at higher levels.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages reflect deteriorating momentum. The 50-day MA ($208) has crossed below the 100-day MA ($212), triggering a short-term bearish signal. The 200-day MA ($197) remains the primary long-term support, but sustained trading below all three key averages (50/100/200-day) would confirm a structural downtrend. Recent rejections near the 50-day MA highlight its role as dynamic resistance. The widening gap between short-term and long-term averages signals accelerating downside momentum, though the still-rising 200-day MA tempers outright bearishness for now.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram deepens in negative territory (-4.2), with both signal line and MACD below zero—confirming bearish momentum acceleration. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (18) plunging below %D (25), entering oversold territory but without divergence. While both indicators flag extreme oversold conditions, the absence of bullish divergence suggests no imminent reversal signal. KDJ readings below 20 historically precede short-term bounces, but MACD’s bearish alignment implies any recovery may be limited.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as price breaches the lower Bollinger Band ($210 ± 2.5%) with bandwidth expanding by 15% over three sessions—a "band walk" signature of strong directional momentum. The close below the lower band for two consecutive sessions indicates oversold extremes but also reflects persistent selling pressure. A mean-reversion bounce toward the middle band ($215) appears probable, though renewed weakness below $200 would target the lower band’s projected path near $194.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent declines validate bearish sentiment through surging volume. The past three down days averaged 1.05M shares versus the 30-day average of 750K, confirming capitulation. Notably, the October 9th sell-off occurred on the highest single-day volume since September, suggesting panic selling. This contrasts with weakening volume during the late-September rally ($214–225), revealing unsustainable upside momentum. Volume divergence strengthens the bear case below $200.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 28 signals extreme oversold conditions, nearing levels last seen during the May 2025 sell-off. While such readings historically precede tactical rallies, the indicator’s plunge from overbought (70+) in mid-September without bullish divergence warrants caution. RSI warnings may gain relevance if readings hold below 30 for multiple sessions, but contextually, deep oversold levels alone lack reliability during strong downtrends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the April–October 2025 rally (low: $145; high: $225), key retracement supports emerge. The 38.2% level ($194) converges with the 200-day MA and August swing low, forming a high-probability support zone. The 50% retracement at $185 aligns with the July consolidation area. Violation of $194 would open a path toward $185, while holding $200 could trigger a counter-trend bounce toward the 23.6% level ($215).
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Bearish confluence dominates: Moving average alignment, volume-backed breakdowns, and oversold yet non-divergent momentum oscillators collectively suggest ongoing downward pressure. Critical support at $197–$200 represents a major inflection point where the 200-day MA, psychological support, and Fib 38.2% level converge. A decisive close below this zone may accelerate declines toward $185. The sole counterpoint—deeply oversold RSI—lacks corroboration from other indicators but could fuel a reflexive bounce if $200 holds. Monitoring for bullish reversal candles or MACD/KDJ divergence near $200 is essential for trend reassessment.