France's Crypto Crackdown: The 30% Who Haven't Said "WAGMI" or "NGMI

The clock is ticking. For France's crypto scene, the landmark European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is about to go live with a hard stop. The national transition period ends on June 30, and the choice is binary: get licensed or get out. The regulator, the AMF, has already flagged the battlefield: about 90 registered crypto companies in France are operating without the required MiCA license. This isn't a vague future threat; it's a direct order to comply or cease.

The market is now sorting into three distinct camps, and the math is stark. Of those 90 unlicensed firms, the split is clear: 30% have already applied for a license, showing they're playing the long game. Another 40% have explicitly said they won't seek one, a firm "NGMI" declaration. The remaining 30% are in a dangerous limbo, having neither applied nor responded to the regulator's November nudge. That group is the real wildcard, the paper hands waiting for a last-minute bailout that isn't coming.

Viewed through a crypto-native lens, this is a classic market purge. The compliant 30% are the diamond hands, building their regulated infrastructure. The 40% who won't apply are the ones who already called it. The 30% in limbo? They're the ones who haven't said "WAGMI" or "NGMI" yet, and their silence is a red flag. This forced exit creates a liquidity vacuum. These 90 firms, unlicensed and unprepared, represent a chunk of the market's depth and trading volume. As they either vanish or are forced into an orderly wind-down, the remaining compliant ecosystem will see a shakeout of weaker players, setting the stage for a cleaner, but potentially more volatile, market.

The Whale Games: Why Firms Are Choosing NGMI

The math here is pure whale logic. For a big chunk of France's crypto firms, the cost of playing by MiCA's new rules is just too high. The regulation's steep capital requirements and operational costs are a major pain point, prompting a rational exit from a high-cost regime. In crypto-native terms, this is a classic case of "NGMI" – not because the business model is broken, but because the regulatory fee to play is a dealbreaker.

France itself is a vocal critic of the EU's passporting system, warning of 'regulatory arbitrage' where firms chase laxer standards. The regulator's own stance is telling: by not seeking a license, these 40% are essentially saying the French market isn't worth the compliance overhead. They're playing the game of regulatory arbitrage, looking for jurisdictions with lighter touch regimes to continue their operations. The 30% in limbo are the paper hands still hoping for a last-minute extension or a loophole, but the clock is now ticking with no extension in sight.

The transition period was meant to be a grace period, allowing firms to operate while applying. But that window is closing fast, with the deadline set for July 1, 2026. The regulator has already made it clear: crypto firms that do not meet MiCA requirements will be required to cease operations from July. This creates a brutal binary choice. You either apply and pay the price, or you fold. The 40% who have said "no" have already made their move, cutting their losses and exiting the French game. The 30% who haven't responded? They're the ones still waiting for a bailout that isn't coming, caught in the middle of a forced exit.

The Market Impact: FUD, Liquidity, and the Path to Moonshot

The purge is live, and the market is feeling the squeeze. With about 40% of unlicensed firms planning to shut down and another 30% in a dangerous state of silence, the immediate impact is a liquidity vacuum. These 90 companies represent real trading volume and depth. As they either exit or are forced to cease operations in July, the remaining compliant ecosystem will see a shakeout of weaker players. This consolidation is a classic crypto-native move: it reduces competition and could concentrate power among the diamond hands who have already applied for licenses.

But the real market-moving tension comes from the 30% in application limbo. They haven't said "WAGMI" or "NGMI" yet, and that silence is a potent FUD overhang. The regulator's warning of possible business closures starting in July hangs over them, creating uncertainty that can dampen sentiment and trading activity. This group is the paper hands waiting for a bailout that isn't coming, and their unresolved status injects volatility into the market as everyone waits to see who gets kicked out and who gets to stay.

For the firms that successfully navigate MiCA, the path is clear: a stronger, more institutionalized position. Getting licensed is a stamp of approval that signals compliance and consumer protection. As seen with companies like Coinbase, Circle, and Revolut securing licenses, it's a critical step for scaling across the EU. The long-term moonshot here is that a cleaner, regulated market attracts more institutional capital and fosters broader adoption. The short-term pain of the purge is the price of admission to a more mature, sustainable ecosystem. The question for the 30% in limbo is whether they have the conviction to apply before the clock runs out, or if they'll be the next to fold.

Catalysts and What to Watch: The Countdown to July

The purge is now a countdown. The real-time data dump starts in July, when the AMF begins enforcing its ultimatum. The regulator has already warned of possible business closures starting in July, and that's when we'll see the first wave of firms officially kicked out. This is the moment the thesis gets confirmed or broken. For the 30% in limbo, this is the final call to action. Their silence has been the FUD overhang; now, the market will get a clear signal on who is capitulating and who is still holding.

The key watchpoint is that final 30%. Will they suddenly apply, signaling a last-minute wave of conviction? Or will they shut down, delivering a clean capitulation wave? The regulator's November letter was a formal nudge, but the July deadline is the hard stop. Any movement from this group-whether a flurry of applications or a series of closure notices-will be a major liquidity event. It will show whether the market's paper hands are finally folding or if there's still a core of diamond hands willing to pay the compliance fee.

Then there's the liquidity shift. As smaller, unlicensed firms exit, the remaining compliant exchanges and services should see a consolidation of volume and depth. The exit of these 90 companies creates a vacuum, and the diamond hands who have applied for licenses are positioned to fill it. Watch for whether trading activity on the remaining platforms becomes more stable and concentrated, or if the initial wind-down causes a choppy, volatile period. The long-term moonshot is a cleaner, more institutional market, but the short-term path is about who gets the liquidity and who gets left holding the bag.