Fox Stock Plummets 3.32% as Bank of America Downgrade Sparks Fears Over NFL Media Rights Exposure with Surging $280M Volume Ranking 467th

Market Snapshot

On February 25, 2026, Fox Corporation (FOXA) closed at a 3.32% decline, marking a significant drop in value amid heightened market scrutiny. The stock’s trading volume surged to $280 million, a 85.7% increase from the previous day, placing it at rank 467 in daily trading activity. Despite the elevated volume, the price weakness underscored investor caution, as the stock traded below its 50-day moving average of $69.00 and 200-day moving average of $64.58. The decline followed a 27% pullback since early January, with the stock now trading near its 12-month low of $46.42. Institutional ownership remains robust, with 52.52% of shares held by hedge funds and other large investors, though recent insider sales, including a 45.38% reduction in ownership by executive Adam Ciongoli, signaled internal uncertainty.

Key Drivers

Bank of America’s downgrade of Fox to “Underperform” from “Buy” emerged as the primary catalyst for the stock’s decline. In a February 25 note, the firm slashed its price target from $80 to $45, a 56.25% reduction, reflecting deepening concerns over the company’s exposure to the impending National Football League (NFL) media rights negotiations. Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich highlighted that Fox is “the most exposed stock in our coverage” to the NFL renewal process, given its reliance on sports programming for revenue and audience retention. The firm estimated a potential 22% downside risk to Fox’s FY27E EBITDA if the NFL reprices its media rights under a “1.5x AAV step-up” scenario, a move that could erode margins and earnings power.

The downgrade was compounded by a broader structural shift in the media landscape. BofA noted that traditional broadcasters like Fox face a “structurally worsening bargaining dynamic” as deep-pocketed tech platforms, including streaming services and digital-first competitors, enter the bidding for premium live sports inventory. This expansion of bidders is expected to drive up costs for rights acquisitions while compressing monetization opportunities through advertising and subscription models. Ehrlich warned that even in a best-case scenario for the NFL renewal, the sector-wide repricing would “dilute earnings power” for media companies, with Fox being the most vulnerable due to its concentration in sports and news. The firm also reduced its valuation multiple for Fox to 6x from 10x, reflecting heightened uncertainty and a reassessment of long-term growth potential.

Market reaction to the downgrade was exacerbated by existing volatility in Fox’s stock. The stock had already fallen 27% since early January, with BofA suggesting that while some of this decline had been priced in, further pressure was expected until the NFL’s new deal was finalized. The firm’s analysis emphasized that Fox’s earnings could face margin compression if the NFL opts for higher fees or less favorable economic terms, such as bundled packages that dilute advertising revenue. Additionally, Fox’s recent earnings report—while exceeding expectations with $0.82 EPS and $5.18 billion in revenue—failed to offset investor concerns about structural risks. Analysts at other firms, including Morgan Stanley and Arete Research, had also adjusted their ratings, with seven “Buy” ratings, nine “Hold” ratings, and one “Sell” rating in the broader consensus. However, BofA’s bearish stance stood out as the lone “Sell” rating, amplifying market skepticism.

The NFL’s potential renegotiation of its $110 billion broadcast and streaming deals, expected to begin within months, looms as a critical wildcard. BofA’s report underscored that Fox’s competitive positioning hinges on maintaining its exclusive Sunday NFL broadcasts, which anchor its prime-time lineup and drive advertising demand. Losing or diluting this relationship would “materially weaken” Fox’s ability to compete on traditional and digital platforms, according to Ehrlich. The firm also highlighted that while competitors like Disney and Comcast might absorb similar risks due to their diversified portfolios, Fox’s reliance on sports leaves it uniquely exposed. This dynamic is further amplified by rising viewership and fees across major sports, which have increased the NFL’s leverage in negotiations.

Institutional and insider activity reinforced the bearish sentiment. Private Trust Co. NA and Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. increased their stakes in Fox during the fourth quarter, but these moves were offset by Ciongoli’s significant insider sale. The mixed signals from investors—ranging from cautious accumulation to strategic exits—highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Fox’s ability to navigate the NFL transition. Meanwhile, the stock’s technical indicators, including its oversold condition and low beta of 0.51, suggested limited short-term upside, aligning with BofA’s bearish outlook. As the market awaits clarity on the NFL’s next steps, Fox’s stock appears poised to remain under pressure until a resolution is reached.