Fox A's Q4 Earnings Beat as Trading Volume Dips to 477th in Activity Rankings

Market Snapshot

On February 6, 2026, Fox A (FOXA) closed with a 1.73% decline, marking a continuation of its mixed performance following Q4 CY2025 earnings. The stock’s trading volume fell 29.84% to $0.31 billion, ranking it 477th in daily trading activity. Despite beating Wall Street’s revenue and profit estimates in the fourth quarter, the stock’s recent dip reflects investor caution ahead of broader market volatility. The company’s market capitalization stands at $27.25 billion, with shares trading at $67.37, down from $70.27 before earnings.

Key Drivers

Fox’s Q4 CY2025 results underscored robust advertising demand and digital momentum, yet margin pressures and subscriber challenges persist. The company reported $5.18 billion in revenue, exceeding estimates by 1.8%, driven by a 46-47% year-on-year increase in scatter pricing for Fox News and a record-breaking ad revenue performance for Major League Baseball and NFL broadcasts. Non-GAAP earnings of $0.82 per share, a 58.6% beat over consensus, highlighted the strength of its core live news and sports segments. However, operating margins contracted to 11.4% from 13.4% in the prior year, signaling efficiency challenges.

The digital transformation of Fox’s business has been a critical growth lever. Tubi, its free ad-supported streaming service, achieved EBITDA profitability for the second consecutive quarter, with quarterly revenue reaching an all-time high and viewer time up 27%. The platform’s focus on on-demand content and NFL simulcasts has driven engagement, particularly among younger audiences. Meanwhile, Fox One, the company’s new direct-to-consumer streaming platform, exceeded early expectations for subscriber uptake, with two-thirds of its audience drawn to sports content. Management emphasized that Fox One has not cannibalized traditional subscriptions, positioning it as a strategic tool to attract cord-cutters and cord-nevers.

Political advertising is expected to be a near-term catalyst. With a non-election year in 2025, Fox still attracted 200 new advertisers to Fox News, reflecting its broad demographic appeal. CEO Lachlan Murdoch highlighted the network’s readiness for an active political advertising cycle in 2026, particularly at Fox News and local stations. This aligns with the company’s strategy to capitalize on the upcoming FIFA Men’s World Cup and NFL season, which are projected to drive advertising revenue and viewer engagement. However, rising sports rights costs remain a headwind. CFO Steve Tomsic noted that while increased ad revenues and digital growth will offset these expenses, portfolio management and monetization strategies will be critical to maintaining profitability.

Subscriber trends and distribution revenue offer a mixed outlook. Fox’s distribution revenue grew 4% year-on-year, with subscriber declines narrowing to 6.3%, supported by “skinny bundle” offerings that bundle channels to retain pricing power. The entertainment division also showed signs of recovery, posting its best season launch in over a decade, with new series attracting over 10 million viewers in their first week. Management credited a disciplined mix of scripted and non-scripted programming and talent investments for this turnaround. However, the broader media industry’s shift to streaming continues to pressure linear subscribers, necessitating ongoing innovation in content and distribution models.

Looking ahead, Fox’s success will hinge on its ability to balance near-term opportunities with structural challenges. Analysts are monitoring the timing and magnitude of political advertising revenue as the election cycle intensifies, as well as Tubi’s profitability and Fox One’s ability to sustain engagement through sports seasonality. While the company’s digital platforms are well-positioned to offset linear subscriber declines, the sustainability of its margin improvements and cost discipline in sports programming will determine long-term investor confidence. For now, Fox’s Q4 performance demonstrates its resilience in a competitive media landscape, but the path to sustained growth remains contingent on navigating evolving industry dynamics.