Fox Corporation’s Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Revenue Growth Amid EPS Challenges

Fox Corporation (FOX) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings on May 12, with investors closely watching for signs of resilience in a media landscape grappling with shifting advertising trends and cost pressures. While consensus forecasts point to a year-over-year decline in earnings per share (EPS), analysts highlight a strong likelihood of a positive earnings surprise driven by robust revenue growth and segment-specific tailwinds.

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Revenue Surge Masks EPS Headwinds

Analysts project Fox’s Q3 revenue to hit $4.14–$4.17 billion, a 20.2% to 20.98% increase compared to Q3 2024. This growth is fueled by surging advertising revenue across both the Cable Network Programming and Television segments. For instance, cable advertising revenue is expected to climb 4.9% year-over-year to $310.5 million, while TV advertising is projected to jump 64.9% to $1.55 billion.

However, EPS faces a tougher path. Estimates range from $0.90 to $0.96, with a consensus decline of 11.9% to 17.4% compared to Q3 2024’s $1.09. The disconnect between revenue and EPS performance underscores rising operational costs, margin pressures, or one-time expenses. Notably, the Other, Corporate, and Eliminations segment is forecast to shrink by 53.4% year-over-year, highlighting inefficiencies or restructuring efforts.

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Segment Breakdown: Where the Growth Lies

• Cable Networks: Despite a 0.1% dip in affiliate fees, the segment’s overall revenue is up 4.2%, driven by advertising and a 67.8% surge in “Other Revenue”—likely tied to licensing or subscription products.
• Television: This division is the star performer, with a 32.8% revenue rise. Advertising revenue here has skyrocketed 64.9%, likely benefiting from live event coverage (e.g., sports, elections) and higher ad demand during peak viewing periods.
• Advertising Dominance: Combined, affiliate fees and advertising revenue account for ~89% of total revenue, with advertising alone up 50.5% year-over-year. This bodes well for Fox’s ability to monetize its vast content library.

Analyst Sentiment: Bullish on Revenue, Cautious on Profits

• Earnings Surprise Potential: Zacks’ Earnings ESP of +3.78% to +4.53% suggests Fox could beat EPS estimates, supported by its 70% historical beat probability over the past four quarters. The company’s Q2 2025 results, which saw a 47.7% EPS beat, further reinforce this optimism.
• Wall Street Mixed: Analysts are divided, with Barchart’s “Moderate Buy” rating reflecting 8 “Strong Buy” vs. 1 “Strong Sell” recommendations. The average price target of $53.84 (a 9.1% upside from recent prices) hints at cautious optimism, especially if Q3 revenue growth trends persist.

Risks and Considerations

1. Segment Volatility: The Television division’s 3.3% affiliate fee growth lags behind its advertising gains, raising questions about long-term distribution deals. Meanwhile, the weak performance in the Other segment could signal underutilized assets or cost overruns.
2. Competitor Landscape: Peers like Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and E.W. Scripps (SSP) face weaker forecasts, but Fox’s reliance on advertising—particularly in cyclical markets—could leave it vulnerable to macroeconomic slowdowns.
3. Long-Term Outlook: While 2025 EPS is expected to rise 27–33% year-over-year, 2026 projections drop to a -7.7% decline, suggesting potential margin pressures or strategic shifts.

Conclusion: A Stock Riding Advertising Waves, But Not Without Risks

Fox Corporation’s Q3 2025 earnings are likely to deliver strong revenue growth, particularly in advertising—a positive sign for its content-driven strategy. The Television division’s outperformance and consistent beat history give investors confidence, while the stock’s 55.8% surge over 52 weeks reflects market optimism.

However, the EPS decline underscores underlying challenges, including margin pressures and uneven segment performance. Investors should weigh the $53.84 price target against risks like slowing ad demand or rising operational costs. With Fox’s Zacks Rank #1 and historical beat record, the May 12 report could catalyze further gains—if the company exceeds already elevated revenue expectations.

Ultimately, Fox’s ability to sustain advertising momentum and address segment-specific weaknesses will determine whether its stock continues to outperform peers in a crowded media market. For now, the path forward looks promising—but not without potholes.