Fortive Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Ratings

1. Market Snapshot

Fortive (FTV.N) is in a bearish technical position with weak momentum, while fundamental scores are moderate and mixed analyst ratings suggest caution.

2. News Highlights

Recent news affecting Fortive’s sector includes:

• May 29, 2025 - The farm machinery industry in Brazil is showing early signs of recovery, with revenue up 12% from November 2024 to February 2025. This could bode well for manufacturers and suppliers in the sector, though it’s a distant tailwind for Fortive.
• May 31, 2025 - China’s factory activity contracted in May, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 49.5, just below the 50 threshold that marks expansion. This suggests ongoing economic challenges that could affect global manufacturing demand.
• May 31, 2025 - REX Shares plans to launch Ethereum and Solana ETFs that use a staking model compliant with updated SEC guidelines. While these ETFs are unrelated to Fortive directly, they highlight a broader trend of crypto adoption and regulatory clarity, which could indirectly boost investor sentiment.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Fortive is facing a mixed landscape from analysts and fundamentals:

• Average rating score (simple mean): 3.00
• Weighted rating score (performance-weighted): 2.57
• Rating consistency: Low - Analysts are not aligned, with two neutral ratings from separate institutions.
• Price trend alignment: The recent price fall (-1.09%) matches the neutral expectations, but the lack of bullish signals suggests limited upside near-term.

Key fundamental factors and their model scores:

• Operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -2.73% - Score: 5.03 (moderate weakness in revenue growth)
• EV/EBIT: 61.12 - Score: 5.03 (slightly overvalued valuation multiple)
• PE ratio: 108.18 - Score: 5.03 (high valuation relative to earnings)
• CFOA (Cash flow from operations): 0.02% - Score: 5.03 (slightly positive operational cash flow)
• Asset-MV (Asset market value): 0.29% - Score: 5.03 (mixed signal on asset valuation)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money is exiting Fortive in larger chunks than retail investors are buying in:

• Small investor inflow ratio: 46.51%
• Medium investor inflow ratio: 43.33%
• Large investor inflow ratio: 42.82%
• Extra-large investor inflow ratio: 39.02%
• Overall trend: Negative - Despite retail participation, large block traders are also selling, which suggests caution among more informed investors.
• Internal fund-flow score: 7.6 (good) - While inflow ratios are mixed, the score suggests strong retail interest and a relatively healthy level of participation.

5. Key Technical Signals

Fortive's technical outlook is weak based on the internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• WR Overbought - Score: 1.00 - A bearish signal indicating overbought conditions may reverse.
• WR Oversold - Score: 2.96 - A neutral-to-bullish signal indicating a potential reversal but with low conviction.
• Dividend Announcement Date - Score: 1.00 - A bearish signal that historically has led to price declines.
• Bearish Engulfing - Score: 1.17 - A strong bearish candlestick pattern confirming downward momentum.

Recent technical indicators by date:

• 2025-08-22 - WR Overbought signal appeared, suggesting overbought conditions.
• 2025-08-28 - Bearish Engulfing pattern formed, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
• 2025-08-27 - Dividend announcement date, which historically has triggered sell-offs.
• 2025-08-29 - WR Oversold signal appeared, suggesting a potential bottoming out.

Key Insights:

• Technical indicators show the market is in a weak state, and we need to pay attention to the risk of decline.
• Bearish signals are obviously dominant (4 bearish vs 0 bullish).
• Recent technical signals are scarce, and the market is relatively calm.

6. Conclusion

Investors should consider avoiding Fortive at this time due to the weak technical setup and mixed analyst ratings. The recent bearish signals and lack of positive momentum make it a high-risk play. A pullback to oversold levels or a strong earnings surprise could provide a better entry point. For now, patience is key.