Fortinet Jumps 3.30% To 103.15 As Technicals Signal Bullish Breakout Potential

Fortinet (FTNT) advanced 3.30% in the latest session to settle at $103.15, pushing above the psychological $100 level on increased volume. This move occurs within a broader context of recovery from its significant August 2024 low near $55. The following comprehensive technical analysis evaluates key indicators and their implications.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows Fortinet consolidating between $98-$105 after recovering from June's pullback. The June 23rd session produced a decisive bullish candle closing near highs after multiple indecisive sessions, suggesting renewed buying pressure. Key resistance emerges clearly at $105, where prices reversed sharply on June 18th and June 20th. Support appears near $98, reinforced by repeated tests in late June and the psychological $100 level. A sustained breakout above $105 would be technically significant, while failure to hold $98-$100 threatens the near-term uptrend.
Moving Average Theory
Calculated moving averages depict a bullish alignment, with shorter periods above longer ones. The 50-day MA (approximately $97.50) slopes upward above the rising 100-day MA (~$90.60) and 200-day MA (~$82.80). Price sits above all three, confirming an intermediate uptrend. The recent bounce off the 50-day MA reinforces its importance as dynamic support. A sustained break below the 50-day would signal weakening momentum, but the current positioning suggests buyers remain in control across multiple timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD shows a convergence following a recent bullish crossover but has flattened near the signal line, suggesting slowing positive momentum. The histogram reflects declining buying pressure from its May peak. KDJ oscillators present a mixed near-term picture: The K-line (57) recently bounced off the oversold area below 20 in mid-June and crossed above the D-line (53), signaling potential short-term upside momentum. However, the K-line remains below the key 50 threshold, warranting caution. Divergence emerged in May as price made higher highs while MACD failed to confirm, a warning of underlying momentum loss preceding the June correction.
Bollinger Bands
Bands narrowed significantly in late June, reflecting lower volatility after the recent pullback. Price recently moved from hugging the lower band towards the upper band ($105 resistance). The June 23rd close pushes towards the upper band, potentially signaling increased volatility. While the movement doesn't represent a clear breakout above the band (which could indicate an overbought condition), proximity to the upper band necessitates monitoring for potential resistance near $105 aligning with the band and prior swing highs.
Volume-Price Relationship
The June 23rd price gain occurred on above-average volume (3.07 million vs. recent average ~3.5 million), lending some credence to the breakout attempt. Volume declined notably during the late May consolidation near $105 and the subsequent pullback through June. Key rallies – particularly the sharp surges in November 2024 and April 2025 – were strongly validated by heavy volume. Conversely, the May 30th and June 13th down days saw volume spikes, suggesting persistent selling pressure near resistance. Overall, volume trends have been supportive of the uptrend, but persistently low volume on advances above $100 remains a concern for sustainability without renewed accumulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating a 14-period RSI yields a reading near 56. This is within the neutral zone, indicating the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. After briefly touching oversold territory (<30) in mid-June, RSI has recovered. Crucially, it failed to reach overbought (>70) during the May rally, diverging from the price high – a bearish divergence that foreshadowed the June pullback. The current neutral positioning provides room for potential upside before overbought risks emerge. While RSI signals alone are insufficient for timing, the current level suggests momentum is moderately constructive but not stretched.
Fibonacci Retracement
Establishing the primary trend from the April 2024 low of ~$88 (derived from the data range) to the June 2025 high of $110.02 provides critical Fibonacci levels. The $92-$93 zone represents the 38.2% retracement and aligns with major consolidation support seen in March-April 2025. The 50% retracement rests near $99-$100, coinciding with the psychological $100 level and recent price consolidation support. The 61.8% level sits at $105-$106, precisely aligning with the significant resistance level observed in May-June 2025. This reinforces $105-$106 as a major technical hurdle. Recovery from the June pullback stalled near the 50% level before the latest push towards resistance. Breakout confirmation above $105/$106 (61.8%) would target the previous high and the 78.6% extension level near $109-$110.
Confluence Points & Significant Divergences
Significant confluence exists around the $105-$106 resistance, reinforced by the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, psychological barrier, and prior swing highs/pullback origins. A break above this area would be technically potent. Similarly, robust $92-$93 support is created by the Fibonacci 38.2% level, the psychological $90-$95 zone, the rising 100-day MA converging nearby, and prior consolidation bases. This makes a breakdown below this level challenging. Divergences present key caveats: The MACD/KDJ failed to confirm the May price high, signaling weakening momentum ahead of the drop. While positive divergences haven't yet formed during this consolidation, KDJ's dip into oversold territory in mid-June helped fuel the current rebound, showcasing how divergences (or oscillator extremes) can signal inflection points. Volume divergence has also been noted during recent tests of resistance.
Probabilistically, Fortinet remains in a longer-term uptrend, but faces significant resistance near $105-$106 confirmed by multiple technical factors. A confirmed breakout above this level on strong volume may signal a resumption of the upward trend towards prior highs. Failure to breach resistance increases the likelihood of retesting the $98-$100 support zone in the near term. The neutral RSI, moderate volume on the latest push, and lack of decisive bullish momentum divergence currently suggest the path of least resistance may require further consolidation. Key factors to monitor include volume confirmation on moves above $105, RSI behavior approaching 70, MACD signal line crossovers, and defense of the $98-$100 support cluster.