FORMUSDC Market Overview

• Price fell sharply after a large-volume sell-off in the overnight session.
• Volatility surged with a range of 1.69–1.68 and a late morning reversal to the downside.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening momentum before the large-volume breakdown.
• Price found temporary support around 1.61–1.63 before stabilizing midday.
• Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.72 high appear key for near-term direction.

Overview

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 1.7046 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.5109 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, after reaching a high of 1.724 and a low of 1.4739. The 24-hour notional volume was approximately $1,629,807 (sum of volume × price), based on a total traded volume of ~214,156 units.

Structure & Formations

The price structure shows a large bearish engulfing pattern forming around 1.68–1.70 as the asset reversed sharply lower following a morning rally. A long lower shadow appears near 1.64–1.66, suggesting temporary support. A series of doji appear in the 1.57–1.59 range, indicating indecision after the early morning sell-off.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has consistently traded below the 20 and 50-period moving averages throughout the session, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA below the 100 and 200-period MAs, indicating a broader bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative mid-morning and has remained in bearish territory, with a strong bearish crossover confirming the downward trend. The RSI reached oversold levels (below 30) during the 1.55–1.57 consolidation, but failed to rebound meaningfully, suggesting continued selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning sell-off, with price breaching the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 1.64–1.66. The bands have since tightened slightly, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

The most notable volume spike occurred around 1.66–1.67, coinciding with the large-volume sell-off and a sharp drop to 1.55. Notional turnover spiked at the same time, confirming the bearish move. Later in the session, volume decreased as price consolidated in the 1.51–1.52 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the 1.724 high to the 1.4739 low, key Fibonacci levels of 61.8% (~1.553) and 38.2% (~1.625) acted as critical support and resistance. Price briefly bounced off the 61.8% level but failed to hold above it, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests a mean-reversion approach based on Bollinger Band contractions and RSI divergence. During periods of low volatility (tight Bollinger Bands) and RSI readings in oversold or overbought extremes, the strategy assumes a reversal trade. Given the recent expansion of Bollinger Bands and the RSI staying in oversold territory without a strong rebound, a similar strategy may have triggered a short trade following the 1.66–1.67 breakdown. However, the lack of follow-through above key Fibonacci levels suggests a continuation of the bearish trend rather than a reversal, making the strategy’s success conditional on precise timing and risk management.