FORMUSDC Market Overview

• Price fell sharply overnight, dropping from $3.05 to $2.71 by 12:00 ET with heavy bearish momentum.
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought conditions reversed to oversold, indicating exhaustion in the bear leg.
• Volume surged over 35,000 units during the sharp selloff but waned during the morning consolidation.
• A potential support zone formed between $2.45–2.60, while a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement targets $2.88.
• Bollinger Bands show price testing the lower band, indicating a low-volatility contraction phase.

FORMUSDC opened at $3.065 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, dropped to a 24-hour low of $2.46, and closed at $2.426 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. Total volume reached 192,342.5, with a notional turnover of ~$505,752. This sharp bearish move reflects significant short-term pressure, especially between 00:15 and 06:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a strong bearish breakdown with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming after the first 15-minute candle at $3.0514 and closing at $3.0354. A long-legged doji appears around 03:30 ET, suggesting indecision. A critical support zone appears to have formed between $2.45 and $2.60, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (from $3.03–$2.42) targeting ~$2.72 as a near-term key level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20 and 50 SMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA appears to be at ~$2.90, while the 100 SMA and 200 SMA are at $2.94 and $2.98, respectively. The price remains well below these averages, suggesting a downtrend is still intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative early in the session and remained in bear territory for most of the 24 hours. RSI dropped below 30 by mid-morning, signaling oversold conditions. However, the divergence between RSI and price action suggests a possible bounce from key support levels. The bearish momentum may be waning as volume and turnover dropped during the morning hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction in volatility during the morning consolidation phase. The 20-period band width tightened as the price hovered near the lower band, suggesting a possible reversal could occur from these levels. A breakout above the upper band would require a strong bullish catalyst, but current conditions are not conducive for one.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked heavily during the early morning selloff with several 15-minute candles recording over 30,000 units traded. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the highest notional turnover occurring between 00:15 and 06:00 ET. However, both metrics have declined since 09:00 ET, suggesting distribution may be easing. A divergence between price and volume could hint at a potential short-term reversal from the $2.45–2.60 zone.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $3.03 (high) to $2.42 (low), key retracement levels are: 23.6% at $2.81, 38.2% at $2.85, and 61.8% at $2.72. The 61.8% level may serve as a near-term target for a bounce. On the 15-minute chart, a pullback could find support at $2.50–2.55, aligning with a 50% retracement of a smaller intraday swing.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and the formation of a potential base around $2.45–2.60, a mean-reversion strategy could be backtested that enters long upon a close above the 50-period SMA and exits on a close below the 20-period SMA with a stop-loss set below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would seek to capture short-term rallies in a consolidative bear trend, provided volume increases with each confirmation. A successful execution of this strategy would likely depend on a reversal in sentiment and a strong bullish catalyst breaking through the upper Bollinger band.