FORMUSDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Breakout and Momentum Shift

• FORMUSDC opened at 0.7819 and traded within a 0.755–0.8949 range, closing at 0.8942.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged in the final 3 hours, with volume spiking to $184,972.5.
• Bollinger Bands and RSI indicate a possible overbought condition toward the session close.
• A bearish divergence between price and volume appears in early recovery attempts.
• Key resistance at 0.8941–0.8949 is now in focus, with Fibonacci retracement aligning at 0.8941.

The FORMUSDC pair opened at 0.7819 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.8942 the same day at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.755 (low) and 0.8949 (high), reflecting a significant bullish reversal from mid-session lows. Total volume amounted to 1,316,060 units, with notional turnover reaching $928,705.75 (calculated using close prices). A clear shift in sentiment occurred during the final 3 hours, as buyers reclaimed control, pushing the pair past the 0.89 level.

Structure and formations suggest a key breakout from a multi-hour bearish consolidation phase. A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the final candle at 16:00 ET, confirming the reversal. The 0.755–0.7819 range had acted as a key support cluster for most of the session, and the price decisively moved above this range in the final 4.5 hours. A notable bearish divergence between price and volume is visible in the early recovery attempts between 19:15–20:00 ET, where volume failed to confirm bullish momentum, hinting at a temporary rally rather than a sustained trend.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover near the 0.76–0.77 level before the final surge. This suggests that the short-term trend had already shifted before the final breakout. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is currently below the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. However, the recent 24-hour move may trigger a retest of the 50-period MA as a potential support level for the next session.

Bollinger Bands show a clear expansion in the final 4.5 hours, with price trading near the upper band at session close. This is consistent with high volatility and rising momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (75–80) during the last candle, which may suggest a short-term pullback or consolidation is likely. However, the MACD histogram remained positive throughout the final phase, indicating strong bullish momentum is still intact. The 0.8941 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the intraday low to high) has been tested and appears to act as a new short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent price action aligns well with a potential breakout strategy using Bollinger Bands and RSI as entry signals. A testable hypothesis for a 15-minute timeframe strategy would involve entering long positions when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI is above 50, while volume exceeds the 20-period average. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent 0.7819–0.755 support cluster. This strategy would aim to capture the momentum seen in the final hours of the 24-hour period. Given the current alignment of momentum indicators and price action, this hypothesis appears robust for further testing on historical data.