FORMUSDC Market Overview: 2025-10-20

• Four/USDC opened at 0.8283 and traded between 0.8700 and 0.7908 over the past 24 hours.
• A sharp rally occurred between 07:00–07:15 ET, pushing price to a 24-hour high of 0.8788 on massive volume.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory overnight, signaling potential for a near-term rebound.
• Volume surged to 120,135 USDC at 13:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp upward reversal from 0.8204 to 0.8373.
• Bollinger Bands expanded early morning, indicating rising volatility and a potential trend shift.

Four/USDC opened at 0.8283 on 2025-10-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.8413 on 2025-10-20 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.8788 and a low of 0.7908 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 544,055.0 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $447,861 (assuming $1 = 1 USDC).

The candlestick pattern over the past 24 hours reveals a V-shaped recovery after a prolonged bearish phase. Notable patterns include a morning star at the early part of the recovery, a bullish engulfing at 07:00 ET, and a bearish divergence forming on RSI after 14:00 ET. Key support levels appear to be at 0.8200 and 0.8000, with resistance forming at 0.8500 and 0.8700. The price action shows a clear attempt to reclaim the 0.8400–0.8500 range after breaking through a prior resistance at 0.8400.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converging in the morning, signaling a possible trend acceleration. Price broke above both moving averages at 07:00 ET, indicating a potential short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at 0.8350, and the 20-period MA at 0.8390, both rising. The daily 50-period MA is at 0.8250, and the 200-period MA is at 0.8150, suggesting the longer-term trend is still sideways to slightly bearish.

The MACD histogram has turned positive after a long bearish phase, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line around 06:45 ET. RSI bottomed at 19.5 in early hours and has been climbing, reaching 55 at 16:00 ET. While not yet in overbought territory, the RSI suggests a recovery could still be in progress. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 06:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility, with price sitting near the upper band at 16:00 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy could be applied to FORMUSDC by entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and the RSI is below 40, with a stop-loss at the nearest support level. Exit the trade when RSI exceeds 70 or when the 50-period MA begins to flatten or decline. Given the current price action and the retesting of key resistance levels, this strategy could potentially capture the upward momentum while managing risk. The V-shaped recovery and divergence in the RSI suggest the setup is plausible for the upcoming 24-hour period.