FORMUSDC Market Overview: 2025-09-18

• Price surged to $1.99 before retreating to close near $1.906 in a volatile 24-hour session.
• Volume spiked sharply during overnight hours, with notable price divergence.
• Momentum suggests overbought/oversold swings; RSI and MACD show divergences.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in early trading, indicating heightened volatility.
• Key Fibonacci levels and resistance appear to govern intraday corrections.

The Four/USDC pair (FORMUSDC) opened at $1.8993 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of $1.9904 before closing at $1.9058 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $1.8944–$1.9904, with total traded volume at 99,972.6 units and turnover of approximately $189,803.60. The session featured pronounced volatility, volume surges, and a bearish reversal in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a distinct top-heavy structure, characterized by a bullish breakout followed by a sharp reversal into a bearish consolidation. A series of large bullish and bearish candles, including a notable bearish engulfing pattern after 01:30 ET, signaled potential exhaustion of the upward move. A doji formed near the peak at 01:45 ET, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels emerged at $1.9313 and $1.9059, with a short-term resistance retesting at $1.9607. The price appears to have found a new floor near $1.9059–$1.9095, with bearish momentum intensifying in the final hours of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed above the price during the early morning surge, confirming a temporary bullish bias before diverging as the price pulled back. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance around $1.97, while the 200-period MA remains a critical long-term support level. The 100-period MA was pierced in the final hours, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The price appears to be testing the 50-period MA on a shorter time frame, with a possible breakdown likely if the $1.9059 level fails.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory during the overnight surge but quickly diverged, with a bearish crossover occurring just before the final 15-minute candle. This indicates a loss of bullish momentum and a probable bearish continuation. The RSI reached overbought levels above 65 during the early surge, then fell sharply below 40 by the end of the session, confirming a potential oversold condition and the likelihood of a rebound. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests the rally may lack conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early hours of the session, reflecting heightened volatility during the bullish phase. Price then pulled back and settled near the middle band by the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting consolidation after the sharp move. The bands are currently tightening slightly, indicating a potential pause in volatility, although the recent price action has pushed the upper band to a new intraday high. A retest of the upper band could trigger renewed buying pressure, while a break below the lower band would confirm bearish control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight hours, peaking at 8,633.9 units at 03:45 ET, coinciding with the price reaching its high. However, the sharp decline that followed occurred with relatively low volume, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reaching over $17,000 in a single 15-minute interval. The divergence between volume and price movement suggests a potential exhaustion of the bullish trend. In the final hours, volume increased again as the price moved lower, indicating strong bearish participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the overnight high and low reveals key levels influencing the intraday action. The 61.8% retracement level at $1.9607 acted as a significant resistance, failing to hold as price pulled back. The 38.2% level at $1.9104 became a short-term support but was ultimately broken during the final hours. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level at $1.95 is under pressure, with a breakdown below $1.9059 potentially confirming a new bearish trend. Traders may watch the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements for signs of re-entry or further consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on the key support and resistance levels identified, with a focus on the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence observed during the session. A sell signal could be triggered on a close below the 1.9059 support, with a stop-loss placed above the 1.9104 retracement level. Conversely, a buy signal could be initiated if the price retests the 1.9607 resistance and holds above it, confirming a continuation of the bullish phase. A trailing stop could be used after a 5% gain to lock in profits. Given the high volatility and sharp volume spikes, this strategy may be best suited for swing traders aiming to capture medium-term directional moves.