The Forgotten Phase: Why the Crypto Market Might Be Stuck Between Cycles

The cryptocurrency market has long been defined by the rhythmic cadence of Bitcoin's halving cycles. Every four years, the algorithmic reduction in block rewards triggers speculative frenzies, followed by inevitable corrections. However, as we approach late 2025, a dissonance has emerged: Bitcoin's price trajectory post-2024 halving defies historical patterns, lingering in a liminal state between cycles. This "forgotten phase" reflects a maturing market where demand drivers are evolving beyond algorithmic events, reshaping how investors and institutions perceive and interact with digital assets.

The Shift in Market Dynamics: From Retail Volatility to Institutional Stability

Bitcoin's recent performance underscores a fundamental transformation. Eighteen months after the 2024 halving, the asset has maintained a steady upward trend without the sharp post-rally corrections seen in prior cycles, according to a FinancialContent report. This stability is not accidental but symptomatic of a broader shift: institutional adoption has deepened liquidity, reduced volatility, and reoriented demand.

Institutional investors now treat Bitcoin as a long-term portfolio asset, prioritizing its macroeconomic properties over speculative timing. According to a Fidelity analysis, Bitcoin's market capitalization-now exceeding $2 trillion-has positioned it among the world's top 10 assets, surpassing silver and trailing only gold in store-of-value appeal. This shift has diluted the influence of retail traders, whose herding behavior once amplified price swings. Instead, systematic inflows from pension funds, endowments, and hedge funds have created a more controlled appreciation dynamic.

Macroeconomic Correlations: A New Pricing Framework

Bitcoin's evolving identity as a macro-sensitive asset is further evidenced by its growing alignment with global monetary trends. A SSRN paper published in 2023 revealed a 0.78 correlation between Bitcoin's price and M2 money supply growth, with a 90-day lag effect in price appreciation. This relationship has only strengthened in 2024–2025, as central banks' dovish policies and quantitative easing programs have driven capital into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 accelerated this trend. By October 2025, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone had accumulated over 100,000 BTC, signaling institutional-grade demand that transcends retail sentiment, as noted in the FinancialContent report. These ETFs have not only broadened access but also introduced a layer of regulatory legitimacy, attracting capital from traditional asset managers who previously shunned crypto.

The Forgotten Phase: Implications for Investors

The market's current interregnum-stuck between halving cycles-presents both opportunities and challenges. For one, the absence of a sharp correction means Bitcoin's price discovery is now governed by macroeconomic fundamentals rather than algorithmic scarcity. This aligns it more closely with traditional assets like gold or equities, which derive value from broader economic narratives.

However, this phase also demands a recalibration of investment strategies. Retail investors accustomed to short-term volatility may find themselves out of sync with a market increasingly shaped by institutional time horizons. Meanwhile, macroeconomic risks-such as tightening monetary policy or geopolitical shocks-now carry outsized weight. As the SSRN paper suggests, Bitcoin's price is no longer insulated from global financial conditions.

Conclusion: A New Paradigm for Crypto Investing

The crypto market's maturation is not a linear process but a redefinition of its role in the global financial system. Bitcoin's journey beyond halving cycles-from speculative commodity to macro-sensitive asset-reflects a broader acceptance of digital assets as a legitimate class of investment. While this "forgotten phase" may feel disorienting for those clinging to old patterns, it also marks the dawn of a more stable, institutionalized era. For investors, the key lies in adapting to a framework where demand is driven not by algorithmic events, but by macroeconomic foresight and institutional confidence.