Ford's Tariff Trap: Why This Stock is a Short Seller's Dream – and How to Play the Steel Rally

The battle over steel tariffs isn't just political—it's a financial bombshell for investors. And right now, Ford (F) is sitting in the crosshairs. With President Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, Ford's bottom line is crumbling, and its stock is primed to crater. Meanwhile, U.S. Steel (X) is soaring—thanks to the very policies hurting Ford. Here's why this is a must-watch trade:

The Ford Train Wreck: Tariffs, Losses, and a Broken Business Model

Ford's Q1 2025 results were a disaster. The company reported a $1.5 billion net loss after tariff-related costs, with earnings plummeting 65% from last year. The culprit? Trump's tariffs, which cost Ford an estimated $2.5 billion in 2025 alone. To put that in perspective: this is like Ford losing $1,000 in profit per vehicle due to higher steel and aluminum prices.

But it's not just tariffs. Ford's divisions are collapsing:
- Ford Blue (ICE vehicles): EBIT cratered to $96 million, down 90% from $901 million in 2024. Fleet pricing is tanking, and production delays are mounting.
- Ford Model e (EVs): Still losing $849 million, with EV retail sales up only 15%—a far cry from Tesla's blistering growth.
- Supply chain chaos: Relying on Canadian aluminum and imported parts, Ford is stuck paying inflated prices while its Blue Oval City plant is delayed until 2026.

The kicker? Ford suspended its 2025 financial guidance. That's Wall Street's red flag for “we have no idea how bad this is going to get.”

Technical Analysis: Ford (F) is a Bear's Paradise

Let's get into the numbers. Ford's stock is trading at $9.97, but the charts scream sell:
- Key Resistance Levels:
- $10.15 and $10.27 are critical barriers. Ford has failed to break above these levels four times since March.
- The 50-day moving average ($10.04) is acting as resistance, not support.
- Support Levels to Watch:
- The $9.90 level (accumulated volume support) is the first line of defense. If it breaks, the $9.34 June low is next.
- Bearish Sentiment: 92% of technical indicators are flashing sell signals, with the Fear & Greed Index at 39 (“Fear”).

Here's the play: Short Ford now. If the stock slips below $9.90, a drop to $9.34 is inevitable. Even a rebound above $10.27 won't fix the fundamentals—this is a structural problem.

U.S. Steel (X): The Tariff Winner to Hedge Your Bets

While Ford is sinking, U.S. Steel is the ultimate contrarian play. The proposed 50% tariffs on steel imports? Pure gold for X.

Financials:
- Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $172 million, down from $414 million in 2024—but this ignores the future upside.
- The Big River 2 (BR2) plant is ramping up shipments, and higher steel prices (thanks to tariffs) will supercharge margins.

Technicals:
- X is trading at $53.82, having broken through $46.31 and $48.83 resistance zones.
- Key Resistance: The $55.72 level is next—a breakout here could push it to $60 by year-end.
- Support: $46.31 (now a floor) and the 200-day moving average ($34.44) are solid backstops.

This is a buy-and-hold for the tariffs. Even if the stock gets overbought (RSI at 78), the fundamentals justify the rally.

The Bottom Line: Short Ford, Long Steel—This Trade is a No-Brainer

• Short Ford (F): Target $9.34 by June's end. Use stop-losses above $10.27.
• Buy U.S. Steel (X): Aim for $55–$60 by year-end.

The math is simple: Ford's exposure to tariffs and its crumbling divisions make it a sell-at-any-price stock. Meanwhile, U.S. Steel is the beneficiary of protectionism—a trade that Jim would love.

Don't miss this: Act now before the tariffs hit harder.

Stay tuned for my next segment—How to Play the EV Bust Without Losing Your Shirt!