Ford's Stock Price Volatility Amid Trump-Era Tariffs: A Technical and Sector Analysis

Ford's stock price during the Trump-era steel and aluminum tariffs (2018–2020) offers a compelling case study in technical analysis and sector positioning. While the company faced a $1 billion profit hit from tariffsTariffs cost Ford $1 billion in profit and hurt sales in China^[1], its stock exhibited mixed signals, reflecting broader market uncertainty and strategic adjustments. This analysis examines Ford's technical indicators, sector performance, and geopolitical context to assess the interplay between policy shifts and investor behavior.

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Ford's stock price closed at $7.65 in 2018, a 38.8% drop from the prior yearFord Motor - 53 Year Stock Price History^[2], as tariffs drove up production costs. By 2019, shares rebounded to $9.30 (21.6% gain), but 2020 saw a 5.5% decline to $8.79 amid pandemic-driven demand shocksFord Motor - 53 Year Stock Price History^[2]. Technical indicators during this period were conflicting. The 14-day RSI of 48.587 placed Ford in a neutral zoneFord Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages^[3], while moving averages diverged: the 5-day MA suggested a buy at $11.67, the 50-day MA a sell at $11.70, and the 200-day MA a buy at $11.43Ford Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages^[3]. The MACD turned negative (-0.010), signaling bearish momentumFord Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages^[3].

Volume spikes coincided with tariff announcements. On June 1, 2018, when Trump raised steel tariffs to 25%, Ford's stock fell nearly 4%Watch These Ford Price Levels as Trump's Steel Tariffs Drive Stock Lower^[4], with trading volume surging to 41 million sharesFord Motor Company (F) Stock Historical Prices & Data^[5]. Key support levels at $9.50 and $8.40 were critical for short-term rebounds, while resistance at $10.80 and $11.40 marked psychological barriersWatch These Ford Price Levels as Trump's Steel Tariffs Drive Stock Lower^[4]. Ford's stock was also observed in a rising wedge pattern, breaking down into a longer-term downtrendWatch These Ford Price Levels as Trump's Steel Tariffs Drive Stock Lower^[4], underscoring structural weakness amid cost pressures.

Sector Positioning: Automotive ETFs Underperform S&P 500

The automotive sector, as represented by ETFs like XCAR, lagged behind the S&P 500 (SPY) during the tariff period. By 2020, the sector's P/E ratio stood at 19.41S&P 500 Sectors and current P/E Ratios^[6], significantly lower than SPY's 27.35S&P 500 Sectors and current P/E Ratios^[6], reflecting discounted valuations due to input cost inflation and supply chain disruptions. Analysts estimated that tariffs could raise new-vehicle prices by 11–15%, rendering half of models priced under $30,000 “unviable”Trump Administration Automotive Tariffs Impacts^[7].

Comparative ETF performance highlighted this divergence. While SPY delivered 8.34% YTD returns in 2025XLC vs. SPY — ETF Comparison Tool^[8], XCAR struggled with annualized returns of -18% from 2018–2020Automotive ETF List^[9]. The S&P 500's diversified exposure to technology and consumer discretionary sectors (P/E ratios of 40.65 and 29.21, respectivelyS&P 500 Sectors and current P/E Ratios^[6]) further widened the gap. Ford's strategic shift to aluminum for the F-150, initially aimed at improving fuel efficiency, backfired as aluminum prices surged under tariff-driven uncertaintyTrump Steel Tariffs 'Hits Straight On Ford's Core'^[10], compounding margin pressures.

Geopolitical Context: Tariffs and Supply Chain Reconfiguration

The Trump administration's tariffs disrupted global supply chains, forcing automakers to restructure operations. Ford's 90% domestic steel sourcingFord Executive Says Trump Tariffs On Steel Causing Minimal Impact^[11] initially insulated it from the worst impacts, but retaliatory tariffs from the EU and China added $1.4 billion in monthly costs for U.S. consumersWhat happened the last time Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum^[12]. The automotive sector's output declined by $3 billion by 2021Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: Comparing 2018 to 2025^[13], with Ford revising financial guidance downward in 2018Ford says it's already seeing a big impact from^[14].

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 outperformed due to its exposure to resilient sectors like technology. From 2017–2021, the index returned 84.5%Donald Trump U.S Sector Performance Analysis^[15], while Ford's stock fell 18% over 12 months as of 2025Trump Tariffs 2025 versus Trump Tariffs 2017 to^[16]. This divergence underscores the automotive sector's vulnerability to trade policy shifts, even as broader markets capitalized on low-interest environments and innovation-driven growth.

Conclusion: Navigating Policy Risks and Strategic Rebalancing

Ford's stock performance during the Trump-era tariffs illustrates the tension between short-term cost shocks and long-term strategic adaptability. While technical indicators signaled mixed momentum, sector positioning revealed a broader undervaluation of automotive ETFs relative to the S&P 500. Investors must weigh these dynamics against ongoing geopolitical risks, such as 2025 tariff hikes and supply chain localization trendsThe Impact of Geopolitics on the Automotive Industry^[17]. For Ford, success will hinge on balancing cost mitigation with innovation in electrification—a sector where Tesla's dominance contrasts sharply with traditional automakers' strugglesTrump's steel, auto tariffs damage GM, Fiat Chrysler, Ford^[18].

Historical backtesting of Ford's price behavior since 2022 further complicates the technical outlook. When Ford's stock closed above its 30-day rolling resistance level (a common breakout signal), the average 30-day return was -8.6%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's -1.2% during the same periodTrump Tariffs 2025 versus Trump Tariffs 2017 to^[16]. Moreover, the win rate for these breakouts fell below 30% after two weeks, suggesting that upside momentum often reversed rather than sustained. This pattern implies that relying on resistance-level breakouts as buy signals may carry elevated risk for Ford, particularly in the context of ongoing trade policy uncertainty and sector-specific headwinds.