Ford's F Shares Surge 2.4% on Record Sales and Hybrid Momentum – What's Next?

Summary
• Ford Motor (F) surges 2.4% intraday, trading at $13.795 amid record 2025 sales and hybrid dominance
• F-Series secures 49th consecutive top truck title, hybrid sales hit 228,072 units
• Direxion Daily F Bull 2X ETF (FRDU) dips -0.02% as Ford outperforms sector

Ford’s stock is surging on a perfect storm of record sales, hybrid dominance, and strategic trim expansion. With F-Series trucks leading the charge and hybrid sales hitting record highs, the automaker’s 6% annual sales growth has pushed its market share to 13.2%. The stock’s 2.4% intraday jump reflects investor optimism, but technical indicators and options activity suggest the rally may have more room to run.

Record Truck Sales and Hybrid Dominance Drive Ford's Rally
Ford’s 2.4% intraday gain is fueled by a record 2025 sales performance, with F-Series trucks outselling competitors by 250,000 units and hybrid sales surging 21.7% to 228,072 vehicles. The company’s diversified powertrain strategy—offering gas, hybrid, and electric options—has resonated with affordability-focused buyers, particularly in the Maverick and Bronco segments. Market share gains of 0.6 percentage points for the year and 0.9 points in Q4 underscore Ford’s ability to outperform the industry, even as EV production cuts and aluminum shortages create headwinds for peers.

Automotive Sector Volatility as GM Drags Down Peers
While Ford’s stock soars, the broader automotive sector remains volatile. General Motors (GM), the sector’s leader, trades -0.77% intraday, reflecting mixed consumer confidence and production challenges. Ford’s hybrid and truck dominance contrasts with GM’s struggles in EV profitability, highlighting divergent strategies. The Direxion Daily F Bull 2X ETF (FRDU) at $34.23 (-0.02%) suggests leveraged bulls are cautiously optimistic, but sector-wide uncertainty persists.

ETF and Options Playbook: Leveraging Bullish Momentum with FRDU and Strategic Calls
• 200-day MA: $11.51 (well below current price); 30D MA: $13.25 (support near $13.30)
• RSI: 40.27 (oversold territory); MACD: 0.06 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $13.795 (near upper band at $13.77)

Ford’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend. The Direxion Daily F Bull 2X ETF (FRDU) offers 2X leverage but currently lags, while options activity points to aggressive call buying. Two top options from the chain:

• F20260116C13: Call option, strike $13, expiration 2026-01-16. IV: 34.55%, leverage ratio: 345.12%, delta: 0.8475, theta: -0.0036, gamma: 0.2829, turnover: 157,789. High leverage and moderate delta suggest strong upside potential if Ford breaks above $13.50.
• F20260116C14.5: Call option, strike $14.5, expiration 2026-01-16. IV: 25.12%, leverage ratio: 345.12%, delta: 0.1342, theta: -0.0055, gamma: 0.3591, turnover: 4,097. High gamma and moderate IV make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $14.48).

Payoff estimates: For a 5% upside (to $14.48), F20260116C13 yields $1.48/share (11.4% gain), while F20260116C14.5 yields $0.98/share (6.8% gain). Aggressive bulls should consider F20260116C13 for immediate leverage or F20260116C14.5 for a longer-term breakout play.

Backtest Ford Motor Stock Performance
The backtest of F's performance after an intraday surge of at least 2% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the event frequency was high, with 512 occurrences, the short-term win rates were below average, indicating that the surge often led to underperformance in the following days. The 3-Day win rate was 50.59%, the 10-Day win rate was 47.46%, and the 30-Day win rate was 48.44%. Additionally, the returns were negative, with a 3-Day return of -0.01%, a 10-Day return of -0.52%, and a 30-Day return of -1.44%. The maximum return during the backtest was only 0.05%, which occurred on the second day after the surge, suggesting that following an intraday surge of at least 2% in F, the stock was more likely to experience a decline than a gain in the short term.

Bullish Setup Confirmed – Position for Ford's Next Move
Ford’s technicals and fundamentals align for a continuation of the rally. The RSI in oversold territory, MACD divergence, and Bollinger Band proximity to the upper band all signal a strong near-term bias. With hybrid sales and truck dominance driving momentum, investors should watch for a break above $13.86 (intraday high) to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, General Motors’ -0.77% decline highlights sector divergence. Aggressive traders may consider F20260116C13 for immediate leverage, while long-term bulls should hold for a potential test of the 52-week high at $13.99. Watch for $13.30 support or a breakdown in GM’s bearish trend.