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Ford's Dividend Outlook: What to Expect in 2025?

Eli GrantMonday, Nov 18, 2024 10:59 am ET
4min read
Ford Motor Company (F) has a long history of paying dividends to its shareholders, with a current annual payout of $0.60 per share, yielding 5.37%. As investors look ahead to 2025, the question arises: how much will Ford pay out in dividends? To answer this, we must consider the company's financial performance, dividend payout policy, and the impact of its electric vehicle (EV) transition.

Ford's financial performance in 2024 will significantly influence its dividend payout in 2025. The company expects to post free cash flows between $6 billion to $7 billion in 2024. Assuming Ford maintains its current dividend payout policy of returning 40%-50% of free cash flows to shareholders, it could pay out between $2.4 billion to $3.5 billion in dividends in 2025. This would result in a dividend per share of approximately $0.60 to $0.87, considering there are around 3.9 billion shares outstanding.

Ford's dividend payout policy is cyclical, with cuts or suspensions during challenging periods. However, the company has a history of prioritizing dividends and has maintained or increased its payout in recent years. Assuming Ford's financial performance remains stable and its EV transition progresses as expected, shareholders can anticipate a total dividend of around $0.60 per share in 2025, barring any major crises.

Ford's EV transition and the associated costs may impact its dividend payout in 2025. The company's Model e segment, housing its EV business, posted a massive pre-tax loss of $4.7 billion in 2023. Ford expects these losses to widen to between $5 billion-$5.5 billion in 2024. If Ford chooses to reinvest in its EV segment to mitigate losses, it could potentially reduce its dividend payouts in 2025. However, if the company's EV segment begins to generate healthy cash flows, it may choose to distribute a portion of these earnings as dividends or special dividends, potentially increasing the total payout for shareholders.



Analysts' expectations and price targets can also influence Ford's dividend payout decisions. According to Marketscreener, Ford is one of the most undervalued companies with an "enterprise value to sales" ratio of 0.2 for the 2024 fiscal year. However, analysts' average price targets have been revised downwards over the last four months, indicating a potential sluggish sales growth. Despite this, the company's positive cash flows and high dividend yield (5.37%) make it an attractive investment for those seeking high dividend stocks. Ford's dividend payout policy aims to return between 40%-50% of free cash flows to shareholders. Assuming Ford maintains its current dividend payout ratio and free cash flow guidance, we can expect a total dividend payout of around $0.60 per share in 2025, barring any major crises.

In conclusion, Ford's dividend payout in 2025 will likely be influenced by its financial performance, dividend payout policy, and the impact of its EV transition. Assuming stable financial performance and a successful EV transition, shareholders can expect a total dividend of around $0.60 per share in 2025. However, potential reductions in dividend payouts due to EV segment losses or changes in analyst expectations should be considered. Investors should monitor Ford's financial performance and EV segment progress to make informed decisions about their dividend expectations.
Disclaimer: the above is a summary showing certain market information. AInvest is not responsible for any data errors, omissions or other information that may be displayed incorrectly as the data is derived from a third party source. Communications displaying market prices, data and other information available in this post are meant for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Please do your own research when investing. All investments involve risk and the past performance of a security, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Keep in mind that while diversification may help spread risk, it does not assure a profit, or protect against loss in a down market.