Why Is Ford Motor (F) Down 12.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ford Motor Company (F). Shares have lost about 12.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ford Motor due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ford Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates

Ford reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 17 cents and declined from 39 cents recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company’s consolidated fourth-quarter revenues came in at $45.9 billion, down 4.8% year over year. F’s total automotive revenues came in at $42.5 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $41.2 billion but declining from the $44.9 billion generated a year ago.

Segmental Performance

In the fourth quarter, total wholesale volume in the Ford Blue segment decreased 8% year over year to 712,000 units, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 637,000 units. Revenues from the segment fell 4% year over year to $26.2 billion but topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $23.57 billion due to higher-than-expected units sold. Earnings before interest and taxes came in at $727 million, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $779 million. EBIT margin of 2.8% was down 3 percentage points from the corresponding quarter of 2024.

Total wholesale volume in the Ford Model e segment remained flat year over year at 37,000 units and lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40,160. Revenues from the segment declined 7.1% year over year to $1.3 billion but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.22 billion. The segment incurred a loss before interest and taxes of $1.22 billion compared with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.39 billion.

Total wholesale volume in the Ford Pro segment decreased 11% year over year to 334,000 and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 345,000 units. Revenues from the segment fell 8% year over year to $14.9 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.04 billion on lower-than-expected units sold. Earnings before interest and taxes came in at $1.23 billion with an EBIT margin of 8.2%. EBIT was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.43 billion.

Fourth-quarter revenues from the Ford Credit unit came in at $3.4 billion, up 4.2% year over year and topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.44 billion. Pretax earnings were roughly $2.6 billion, up 55% year over year.

Financial Position

Ford reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $2.14 billion for the quarter. It had cash and cash equivalents of $23.36 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, totaled $16.37 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025.

2026 Outlook

Ford expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT in the range of $8-$10 billion, up from $6.78 billion in 2025. It expects adjusted free cash flow in the range of $5-$6 billion, up from $3.5 billion recorded in 2025. Capital expenditures are expected to be around $9.5-$10.5 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted -29.75% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Ford Motor has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Ford Motor has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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