My Food Bag Group’s Q4 2025 Earnings: A Recipe for Sustainable Growth or a Fluke?

The food delivery sector has been a battleground of volatility, but My Food Bag Group (NZSE:MFB) just served up a dish that’s worth savoring. Let’s dissect its Q4 2025 earnings surprise and whether this is a fleeting flavor or the start of a lasting feast.

The Surprise on the Table: Revenue Holds Steady, Profits Pop

Despite a flat top-line revenue of NZ$162.1M for FY2025 (unchanged from FY2024), the company delivered a 5% jump in net profit to NZ$6.35M, with EPS doubling to NZ$0.03—beating analyst expectations. This is no small feat in a sector where competitors like HelloFresh and Thrive Market are grappling with margin pressures. The question is: Is this a one-time boost, or a sign of structural improvement?

The Secret Sauce: Cost Cuts and Operational Realignment

The turnaround starts in the kitchen—literally. My Food Bag implemented new pick technology in H2 FY2024, achieving 99% accuracy, which slashed operational errors and waste. This efficiency pushed H2 NPAT up 75% year-on-year, proving that the company can trim fat without sacrificing quality.

While gross margin held steady at 48.5%, the contribution margin dipped to 22.6%—a red flag. But here’s the catch: the company reduced net debt by NZ$4.9M to NZ$6.9M, and generated NZ$7.6M in free cash flow, signaling strong liquidity management. This isn’t a company burning cash; it’s rebuilding its foundation.

Market Positioning: Double Down on What Works

The key to My Food Bag’s survival? Focusing on high-margin segments. Its Bargain Box brand saw 19.5% growth in deliveries, driving the average order value up. This isn’t just about volume—it’s about customer retention. Active customers held steady at 56,800, proving that subscribers aren’t fleeing despite industry-wide churn.

Meanwhile, the launch of the My Food Bag Shop—a flexible platform for non-subscribers—opens a new revenue stream. In a sector dominated by rigid subscription models, this strategic flexibility could be a game-changer.

Risks on the Horizon: Can Growth Outpace Headwinds?

The skeptics will point to flat revenue growth and the slipping contribution margin. Competition remains fierce, and the meal-kit market is still maturing. Plus, the NZ$16.1M EBITDA is modest compared to global peers.

But here’s the bull case: My Food Bag isn’t trying to conquer the world—it’s perfecting its niche. With debt down, cash flowing, and a dividend resumed (0.5 cents per share), this is a patient play. The company isn’t just surviving; it’s reinventing itself for the next phase of the meal-kit boom.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Dip, or Miss the Meal?

This isn’t a “set it and forget it” stock, but for investors willing to look past short-term noise, My Food Bag is a diamond in the rough. The operational improvements and strategic pivots suggest this isn’t a one-quarter wonder—it’s a company rebuilding its recipe for success.

Action Item: This is a buy-the-dip opportunity. If shares pull back to the NZ$0.08 level (a 20% discount from recent highs), that’s your signal to load up. The meal-kit market is consolidating—those who survive will thrive. My Food Bag is fighting to stay at the table.

Your move.