The Foldable Phone Revolution: Samsung's Gains and Apple's Countermove in the U.S. Smartphone Market

The U.S. smartphone market is undergoing a quiet but seismic shift. While traditional slab phones still dominate, foldable devices are carving out a niche that promises to reshape the industry's competitive landscape. By 2025, foldables accounted for 1.6% of U.S. smartphone sales, a modest figure but one that masks a far more compelling story: a market growing at a 30.59% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. This trajectory positions foldables as a high-margin, high-potential segment, with Samsung and Apple locked in a battle for dominance that could redefine premium pricing power and market share dynamics.

Samsung's Foldable Empire: Innovation and Pricing Power

Samsung has been the undisputed leader in the foldable space since its 2019 launch of the Galaxy Z Fold. In 2025, the company's foldables accounted for 4% of its total smartphone sales but contributed 16% of its revenue from devices priced above $800. This 4:16 ratio highlights the segment's profitability, with contribution margins estimated at 53–58%—far exceeding those of traditional smartphones. The Galaxy Z Fold 7, priced at $1,999, and the Z Flip 7 FE at $899, exemplify Samsung's dual-tier strategy: capturing both ultra-premium and mid-tier markets while maintaining high margins.

Samsung's success stems from relentless innovation. The Z Fold 7 is the thinnest and lightest foldable in its lineup, with a 26% thinner profile and 10% lighter weight than its predecessor. Its refined hinge minimizes screen creases, and the 8-inch internal display offers a tablet-like experience. Software integration, such as AI-powered tools for live translation and image generation, further differentiates the product. These features justify premium pricing and reinforce Samsung's dominance in a segment where brand equity and technological leadership are critical.

Apple's Countermove: A Game of Late-Mover Advantage

While Samsung has built a fortress in the foldable market, Apple's rumored entry in 2026 threatens to upend the status quo. Analysts at UBS predict Apple's foldable—codenamed the “iPhone Fold”—will debut with a bill of materials (BOM) cost of $759, slightly lower than Samsung's Z Fold SE. Despite higher casing and hinge costs, Apple is expected to price the device between $1,800 and $2,400, positioning it as the most expensive iPhone ever. With contribution margins projected at 53–58%, Apple's foldable could match Samsung's profitability while leveraging its ecosystem to lock in users.

Apple's strategy hinges on its “late-mover advantage.” By entering the market after Samsung has refined the technology, Apple can focus on solving key pain points: reducing screen creases, improving hinge durability, and optimizing iOS for foldable form factors. The company's rumored tri-foldable design, paired with AI-powered software integration, could redefine user expectations. Moreover, Apple's ecosystem—spanning iPhones, MacBooks, and Apple Watches—creates a sticky environment where foldables could serve as a bridge between mobile and desktop computing.

Market Share Shifts and Investment Implications

The U.S. market is pivotal for both companies. Carrier subsidies, which reduce foldable prices by 30–45% over 24-month contracts, have made these devices more accessible. In 2025, 60% of U.S. foldable sales occurred through carrier channels, driven by aggressive promotions tied to 5G plans. This dynamic benefits Samsung, whose Z Flip 7 FE targets price-sensitive consumers, but Apple's entry could disrupt this balance.

Samsung's current 35.4% global foldable market share (2025) is under threat from Huawei, Honor, and Xiaomi, which are gaining ground in the U.S. with mid-range clamshell models. Apple's brand equity and ecosystem could accelerate this shift, particularly if it leverages its 2026 launch to capture early adopters. However, Samsung's first-mover advantage, supply chain expertise, and established software ecosystem provide a buffer.

For investors, the key question is whether foldables will remain a niche or evolve into a mass-market product. The global foldable market is projected to grow from $31.3 billion in 2025 to $118.87 billion by 2030, driven by falling component costs and enterprise adoption. Samsung's early leadership and Apple's potential disruption create a compelling investment narrative:

1. Samsung (SSNLF): A long-term play on its foldable dominance. The company's R&D investments and dual-tier pricing strategy position it to capture 40–50% of the U.S. foldable market by 2030. However, risks include Apple's pricing pressure and supply chain bottlenecks.
2. Apple (AAPL): A high-conviction bet on its 2026 launch. If the iPhone Fold delivers a polished user experience and integrates seamlessly with the Apple ecosystem, it could capture 20–30% of the U.S. foldable market within three years.

Conclusion: A Revolution in the Making

The foldable phone revolution is not just about screens—it's about redefining what a smartphone can be. Samsung's current dominance and Apple's looming entry create a dynamic where innovation, pricing power, and market share are in constant flux. For investors, this volatility is an opportunity. The U.S. market, with its carrier-driven affordability and high 5G adoption, is the battleground where these forces will collide.

As the global foldable market surges toward $120 billion by 2030, the companies that master this technology will reap outsized rewards. Samsung's early lead and Apple's ecosystem-driven disruption make both compelling long-term investments—provided they can navigate the challenges of a rapidly evolving market. For now, the stage is set for a showdown that could reshape the smartphone industry for a decade.