FOLD Soars 30.8% on $4.8B Takeover: A Rare Disease Biotech's Game-Changing Acquisition Ignites Market Frenzy

Summary
• BioMarin to acquire Amicus Therapeutics for $14.50/share, a 33% premium to FOLD's last close
• FOLD surges 30.8% intraday, trading at $14.245 amid $4.8B deal announcement
• Turnover hits 85.46M shares, with 52W high of $14.36 reached

Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) has erupted 30.8% in intraday trading following BioMarin's $4.8 billion all-cash acquisition offer. The stock's meteoric rise—pushing it to a 52-week high of $14.36—reflects immediate market validation of the strategic merger. With BioMarin's $14.50/share bid resolving patent litigation and unlocking $599M in annualized revenue from Galafold and Pombiliti/Opfolda, the deal signals a seismic shift in rare disease therapeutics. Traders are now parsing technicals and options volatility to position for the next phase.

BioMarin's $4.8B Bid Ignites FOLD's Record Surge
The 30.8% intraday rally in FOLD stems directly from BioMarin's $14.50/share all-cash acquisition offer, representing a 33% premium to FOLD's $10.89 close. This premium, coupled with the resolution of U.S. Galafold patent litigation granting Aurobindo and Lupin generic rights from 2037, has revalued Amicus' $599M annualized revenue streams from Galafold and Pombiliti/Opfolda. The deal's accretive EPS profile—projected to be accretive in 2026 and substantially so by 2027—has triggered immediate price discovery, with the stock trading at 132% of its 52-week low of $5.51. The acquisition's $3.7B debt financing structure and BioMarin's deleveraging roadmap further reinforce the transaction's strategic rationale.

Options Volatility and ETF Positioning: Navigating the FOLD Surge
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend (75.8 RSI), Long-term bullish
• MACD: 0.426 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.345, Histogram: 0.081
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $11.03, Middle $10.08, Lower $9.12
• 200D MA: $7.64 (well below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $9.85–$9.89, 200D $6.07–$6.18

Top Options Contracts:
• FOLD20260116C12
- Call, $12 strike, Jan 16 2026
- IV: 37.39% (moderate), Leverage: 6.30%, Delta: 0.952 (deep in-the-money), Theta: -0.0185 (moderate decay), Gamma: 0.0665 (modest sensitivity), Turnover: $260K
- Why: High leverage ratio and liquidity make this a core holding for long-term bullish exposure. Projected 5% upside (to $14.96) yields $2,960 payoff per contract.
• FOLD20260116C13
- Call, $13 strike, Jan 16 2026
- IV: 48.05% (elevated), Leverage: 9.45%, Delta: 0.768 (moderate), Theta: -0.0234 (aggressive decay), Gamma: 0.1587 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $512
- Why: High gamma and IV suggest strong short-term momentum. A 5% price move to $14.96 generates $1,960 payoff, balancing risk and reward.

Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should allocate 60% to FOLD20260116C12 for core exposure and 40% to FOLD20260116C13 for momentum capture. Monitor 200D MA ($7.64) as a critical support level. If FOLD closes above $14.36 (52W high), consider rolling into FOLD20260220C15 for extended positioning.

Backtest Amicus Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of FOLD's performance after a 31% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 30-day win rate is high at 53.78%, the 3-day and 10-day win rates are lower at 47.83% and 48.05%, respectively. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.24%, which occurred on day 45, indicating that while there is potential for gains, the strategy's performance is not consistently strong.

FOLD's 30.8% Rally: A Strategic Merger's Immediate Impact and Next Steps
The 30.8% intraday surge in FOLD reflects immediate market validation of BioMarin's $4.8B acquisition, with the stock now trading at 132% of its 52-week low. Technicals confirm a short-term bullish trend (75.8 RSI) and long-term momentum, while options volatility (37.39–48.05% IV) suggests sustained interest. Investors should monitor the 200D MA ($7.64) as a critical support level and watch for regulatory approvals by Q2 2026. Meanwhile, sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) remains stable with a 0.055% intraday gain, underscoring FOLD's standalone momentum. Act now: Position in FOLD20260116C12 for core exposure and FOLD20260116C13 for momentum, with a stop-loss below $14.16 (intraday low).