FOLD's 30% Surge: A Takeover Premium or Market Frenzy?

Summary
• BioMarin's $4.8B all-cash acquisition of Amicus Therapeutics triggers 30.44% intraday rally
• FOLD trades at $14.205, just $0.30 below $14.50 takeover price
• Options volume surges 148M shares traded, with 260K contracts for $12–$15 strikes

Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) has ignited a market frenzy, surging 30.44% to $14.205 in a single trading session. This unprecedented move follows BioMarin's $4.8 billion all-cash acquisition offer at a 33% premium. With the stock trading just $0.30 below the $14.50 takeover price, the market is pricing in near-certainty of the deal closing in Q2 2026. The biotech sector is watching closely as FOLD's 52-week high of $14.36 is now within striking distance.

Takeover Premium Ignites FOLD's Record Surge
The 30.44% intraday rally in FOLD is directly attributable to BioMarin's $14.50-per-share acquisition offer, which represents a 33% premium to FOLD's last closing price of $10.89. This all-cash transaction, valued at $4.8 billion, provides immediate liquidity certainty for shareholders while adding Galafold and Pombiliti+Opfolda to BioMarin's rare disease portfolio. The market's aggressive pricing reflects confidence in the deal's regulatory and shareholder approval prospects, with the $14.50 floor effectively capping downside risk. Additionally, the resolution of U.S. Galafold patent litigation—granting Aurobindo and Lupin generic rights from 2037—reinforces long-term revenue visibility for BioMarin.

Biotech Sector Rally: FOLD Outpaces Amgen as Takeover Drives Momentum
While the broader biotech sector saw mixed performance, FOLD's 30.44% surge dwarfs Amgen's (AMGN) 1.38% intraday gain. This divergence highlights the unique catalyst of a premium acquisition offer, which typically generates outsized returns for target companies. FOLD's rally also outperforms peers in the rare disease space, where therapeutic innovation and regulatory clarity often drive valuation multiples. The acquisition's strategic fit—adding two high-growth therapies to BioMarin's lysosomal storage disorder portfolio—positions FOLD as a standout in a sector increasingly focused on M&A-driven scale.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on FOLD's Takeover Premium
• 200-day average: $7.64 (well below current price)
• RSI: 75.81 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 0.426 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $9.12–$11.03 (price at 55% deviation)

FOLD's technicals suggest a continuation of the takeover-driven rally, with key resistance at $14.50 (takeover price) and support at $14.16 (intraday low). The 75.81 RSI reading indicates overbought conditions, but the 30.44% move is justified by the structural floor of the $14.50 offer. Options traders should focus on near-term strikes with high leverage ratios and moderate delta to capture upside while managing time decay. The sector leader Amgen's 1.38% gain underscores the importance of sector-specific catalysts in biotech trading.

Top Option 1: FOLD20260116C14
• Contract Code: FOLD20260116C14
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $14
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 8.87% (moderate)
• LVR: 47.35% (high)
• Delta: 0.766 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.0169 (high decay)
• Gamma: 0.864 (extreme sensitivity)
• Turnover: $8,056
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.905 (14.205 → 14.915)
This call option offers a 47.35% leverage ratio with a delta of 0.766, making it highly responsive to price movements. The high gamma (0.864) ensures rapid premium appreciation as FOLD approaches $14.50. With 29 days to expiration, the -0.0169 theta is manageable given the takeover timeline.

Top Option 2: FOLD20260220C15
• Contract Code: FOLD20260220C15
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $15
• Expiration: 2026-02-20
• IV: 13.92% (moderate)
• LVR: 142.05% (extreme)
• Delta: 0.217 (low)
• Theta: -0.0038 (low decay)
• Gamma: 0.355 (moderate)
• Turnover: $13,770
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.415 (14.205 → 14.915)
This out-of-the-money call provides 142.05% leverage with minimal time decay (-0.0038 theta). The 13.92% IV and 0.355 gamma position it to benefit from a breakout above $15, with 51 days to expiration offering flexibility for the Q2 2026 closing timeline. Aggressive bulls should consider FOLD20260116C14 into a $14.50 close, while conservative players may target FOLD20260220C15 for a longer-term play.

Backtest Amicus Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of FOLD's performance after a 30% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 30-day win rate is high at 53.53%, the average return over that period is only 0.97%, with a maximum return of 2.22% on day 45. This suggests that while FOLD has a strong potential for short-term gains, the overall performance is modest and volatile.

Takeover Floor in Place: FOLD's 52-Week High Within Reach
FOLD's 30.44% surge is a textbook takeover premium play, with the $14.50 floor providing a clear ceiling for downside risk. The stock's 52-week high of $14.36 is now within striking distance, and the options market is pricing in a high probability of closing near the offer price. Technical indicators suggest continued momentum, but traders should monitor the 75.81 RSI level for potential overbought exhaustion. The biotech sector's mixed performance, led by Amgen's 1.38% gain, underscores the importance of sector-specific catalysts. Investors should watch for a $14.50 close confirmation and consider rolling long-dated options into the Q2 2026 closing window. For now, FOLD's trajectory remains firmly bullish, with the takeover premium acting as both a floor and a ceiling.