FMX Plunges 3.74% to 83.67 as Bearish Patterns Signal Prolonged Downtrend

Candlestick Theory
Mexican Economic Development (FMX) exhibits bearish momentum, closing at 83.67 (-3.74%) on September 3, 2025, after rejecting the 87.21 resistance. A three-candle pattern (August 27–29) formed a bearish evening star near 87.00, signaling exhaustion after the rebound from the 83.18 August low. Key support rests at 83.18–83.33 (double-bottom base), while resistance converges at 86.90–87.28 (recent highs and 50-day MA). The breakdown below 85.00 confirms seller dominance, though oversold conditions near support may invite consolidation.
Moving Average Theory
All major moving averages slope downward, confirming a persistent bear trend. The 50-day MA (currently ~87.20) capped recovery attempts in late August, while the 100-day (~92.50) and 200-day (~95.80) loom overhead as dynamic resistance. Price remains below all three MAs, with the 50/100-day bearing a death cross below the 200-day since July. This alignment signals entrenched weakness; sustained trading above the 50-day MA is necessary to suggest trend reversal potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows deepening negative momentum, with the signal line diverging below the zero line after August’s failed rebound. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (September 3: K=18, D=22, J=10) signals oversold territory but lacks bullish convergence. Notably, KDJ failed to breach 50 during the August rebound—a sign of weak upside momentum. Bearish MACD/KDJ alignment suggests downward pressure persists, though oversold KDJ readings warn of short-term consolidation risk.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have contracted by 15% since mid-August, reflecting dwindling volatility and impending directional resolution. Price hugs the lower band (82.50), with the 20-day midline (85.40) acting as resistance. This compression near multi-month lows typically precedes volatile breaks; a sustained close below 83.00 could trigger accelerated selling toward 80.00, while reclaiming the midline may signal relief to 86.90.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution dominates volume trends, with August 21’s 2.72M-share rally stalling at 87.65, followed by higher-volume declines (September 3: 765k shares, exceeding the 30-day average). The late-August rebound saw muted volume, invalidating its sustainability. Support tests at 83.18 (August 19) occurred on 2.0M shares—the year’s second-highest volume—hinting at buyer interest. Confirmation of reversal would require high-volume closes above 86.00.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI hovers near oversold at 31 (September 3), though it has remained sub-50 since July’s breakdown from 107.24. Three oversold readings since August (lowest: RSI 28 on August 19) failed to spark recoveries beyond 89.28, underscoring bearish inertia. While current RSI proximity to 30 may support consolidation, sustained readings below 40 during bounces reinforce the broader downtrend.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the dominant downtrend from 107.24 (July 7 high) to 83.18 (August 19 low) reveals resistance at 88.86 (23.6%), 92.37 (38.2%), and 95.21 (50%). The August rebound peaked at 89.28—fractionally above the 23.6% level—before reversing. This validates 88.86–89.28 as a supply zone. Any meaningful recovery must breach 92.37 to challenge the bear structure, while failure at 83.18 opens 78.60 support.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence anchors bearish sentiment: resistance aligns at the 50-day MA (87.20), Fib 23.6% (88.86), and recent highs (89.28). Simultaneously, MACD, KDJ, and RSI oscillators synchronize near oversold without bullish divergence. However, KDJ’s oversold extremes and the 83.18 volume-backed support hint at temporary equilibrium. A critical divergence exists between RSI’s August oversold signal and price’s lower low (83.18 vs. prior 98.60), suggesting latent bearish pressure. Probabilistically, the path of least resistance remains downward below 86.90, with reversal viability contingent on reclaiming Fib 38.2% (92.37) or high-volume accumulation at 83.00–84.00.