Flux/Bitcoin (FLUXBTC) Market Overview – 2025-09-23

• FLUXBTC drifted lower overnight, closing near session lows after a failed short-covering rally.
• Volatility dipped in the early hours before surging again as price hit key 1.63e-06 resistance.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions at 1.63e-06, yet price failed to break higher, hinting at bearish divergence.
• Late-day buying pressure pushed price to 1.66e-06, but volume was lackluster, suggesting a shallow breakout.

Opening Narrative

The Flux/Bitcoin (FLUXBTC) pair opened at 1.62e-06 at 12:00 ET – 1, reaching a high of 1.67e-06 and a low of 1.6e-06, before closing at 1.66e-06 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 30,493.39, with a notional turnover of approximately 30.51 BTC (assuming 1 BTC = 1 FLUXBTC at closing price).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a key resistance cluster forming around the 1.63e-06 to 1.64e-06 range, with multiple bullish attempts failing to close above this level. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 1.63e-06 during the morning session, followed by a doji at the same level late in the day, signaling indecision. A strong short-covering rally emerged just before the 5-hour mark, but it failed to sustain above 1.63e-06, reinforcing the idea of a key resistance area. On the flip side, the 1.61e-06 and 1.6e-06 levels acted as solid support, with bounces from these levels showing some buying interest.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were closely aligned around the 1.62e-06–1.63e-06 range. Price briefly pierced above the 20SMA twice in the afternoon, but both times it quickly reverted back, suggesting the moving averages were acting as a ceiling. On the daily chart, the 50DMA crossed above the 100DMA, indicating a potential short-term bullish bias, but the 200DMA remained a strong long-term anchor below current levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a slight bearish divergence in the early hours, with the line crossing below the signal line at 1.63e-06. This was followed by a short-lived bullish divergence during the 5–6-hour window. The RSI oscillated between overbought (above 70) and neutral (40–60) levels, with a recent overbought reading failing to trigger a strong bullish breakout, suggesting a loss of upward momentum. A bearish crossover in the RSI occurred after 10 hours, coinciding with the price drop below 1.62e-06.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late afternoon as price approached the upper band at 1.66e-06, with the bands widening from a narrow 1.62e-06 range to 1.66e-06. Price closed near the upper band, indicating a potential breakout attempt. However, the low volume accompanying the move suggests a weak follow-through. The lower band hovered around 1.6e-06, which was briefly tested during the overnight hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained subdued for most of the session, with a sharp spike occurring at 14:00 ET when price broke above 1.65e-06. This spike, however, did not confirm the move as volume dropped off shortly after, raising questions about the sustainability of the breakout. Turnover mirrored volume activity, with the largest notional trades occurring between 14:00 and 14:30 ET. A divergence between price and turnover was observed in the final hours, with price rising while turnover remained flat, hinting at a lack of broad market participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key swing from 1.6e-06 to 1.67e-06 showed that the 61.8% retraction level sat at approximately 1.638e-06. Price tested this level multiple times but failed to break through. The 38.2% retraction (around 1.635e-06) served as a temporary support and resistance zone. Daily retracement levels from the previous week’s low to high also pointed to 1.62e-06 as a significant level, which coincided with the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on detecting divergences in RSI and MACD while monitoring key Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, the strategy looks for instances where RSI or MACD diverges from price action—either bullish or bearish—while price is in proximity to key Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels act as potential turning points where sentiment may shift. In today’s session, the bearish RSI divergence around 1.63e-06 and the failed breakout at the same level suggest the strategy could have triggered a short signal. The MACD divergence also aligns with this, reinforcing the potential for a sell-side bias. The lack of volume during the final push above 1.66e-06 further supports the idea of a false breakout, which the strategy would likely flag. This combination of signals could serve as a high-probability setup for a short trade into the 1.62e-06–1.6e-06 range.