FLOWUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Key Supports in 24-Hour Session

• Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) closed lower by ~0.7% over 24 hours amid mixed volume and price consolidation.
• Price broke below 0.405, forming bearish reversal candles and testing support at 0.399.
• Volatility expanded during overnight Asian session, reaching 0.406 before retreating.
• RSI near neutral territory suggests balanced momentum, but MACD remains bearish.
• Notional turnover surged after 17:00 ET with a volume spike of 67k contracts.

Opening and Closing Prices

Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) opened at $0.401 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.406, before closing at $0.399 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 1,036,418 contracts, with a notional turnover of $413,525.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure showed bearish reversal formations late in the session, particularly in the 03:45–04:00 ET timeframe, when a long-tailed candle closed at 0.401 from an open of 0.404. This, along with a subsequent 0.399 close, reinforced 0.400 as a critical support level. A large bullish 0.404–0.406 candle at 19:30 ET failed to hold gains, suggesting sellers regained control. No significant doji or engulfing patterns were seen in the final 30 minutes, but consolidation below 0.403 implies a potential short-term bear trend.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed price dipping below the 20 SMA early morning, confirming a bearish turn. The 50 SMA, while flat, was approached by price in the final two hours with no breakout. On the daily chart, 50/100/200 SMA lines are converging slightly lower, suggesting continued bearish bias for the next 24 hours.

RSI (14) hovered between 50 and 45 in the final hour, indicating balanced momentum with no overbought or oversold signals. MACD (12,26,9) remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover in the 04:00–04:15 ET window. This aligns with the downward drift in price.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility spiked between 17:00–19:45 ET, with the Bollinger Bands expanding as price reached the upper band at 0.406. A contraction occurred overnight in the 02:00–03:45 ET window before expanding again. Price closed near the lower band at 0.399, indicating bearish pressure. This pattern could continue as the lower band continues to slope downward.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 19:30 ET (92k contracts) and again at 04:00–04:30 ET, with corresponding turnover of $37.6k and $26.4k. However, the price failed to close above the 0.405 level during these spikes, indicating bearish rejection. Price and turnover diverged in the final hour, with volume declining despite price testing key support at 0.399. This divergence suggests weak conviction in the downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a Fibonacci retracement from the 0.406–0.399 swing, key levels at 0.404 (23.6%) and 0.402 (38.2%) were tested and rejected. The 61.8% level at 0.400 was reached by the final candle, reinforcing its importance. If 0.399 breaks and holds, the next target would be 0.397–0.396 (78.6%–88.8% levels).

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short trade triggered at the close of the 0.405–0.402 bearish engulfing candle, placing a stop above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.406. A take-profit target could be set at 0.399, followed by 0.397. The RSI and MACD would act as filters, confirming bearish momentum. Given the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.400 and the volume divergence in the final hour, this setup could be backtested for entry timing and risk-reward balance.