Is Flowers Foods (FLO) Among the Best Food Stocks to Buy Under $30?

Flowers Foods (FLO), the maker of iconic breads like Nature’s Own and Dave’s Killer Bread, has long been a staple in American pantries. But with its stock price hovering around $17.30 as of May 2025, is it a compelling buy for investors seeking undervalued food stocks? Let’s dissect the data.

Flowers Foods: A Bargain at $17.30?

Flowers Foods’ stock has been in a consolidation phase in early 2025, trading between $16.93 and $17.81 in May. Its $17.31 closing price on May 8 places it well below the $30 threshold, but the technical picture is mixed.

Key Observations:
- Bearish Technicals: All key moving averages (SMA/EMA) are above the current price, signaling a SELL recommendation. The 50-day SMA sits at $18.41, and the 200-day SMA is at $20.88.
- Volatility: The stock exhibits a 2.85% 30-day volatility, with only 40% of days ending in gains in May.
- Fundamentals: FLO’s Q4 2024 net income rose 20.9% to $43.1 million, driven by margin improvements and cost-saving initiatives. The $795 million acquisition of Purposeful Foods (Simple Mills) in February 2025 aims to expand its "better-for-you" snacking portfolio, a growth area in the food sector.

The Case for Flowers Foods

1. Undervalued Relative to Peers:
2. FLO’s P/E ratio of 12.5x (based on 2024 earnings) is below the sector average of 18x.

3. Its dividend yield of 1.4% (post-Feb 2025 $0.24/share payout) provides modest income.

4. Strategic Moves Pay Off:

5. The Purposeful Foods acquisition adds a $150 million annual revenue stream and diversifies FLO’s product mix into snacks, a category with higher margins than traditional bakery goods.

6. Near-Term Catalysts:

7. Analysts project a 6.92% ROI by December 2025, with the stock hitting $18.13 by year-end.

The Competition: How Does FLO Stack Up?

While FLO is undeniably cheap, other food stocks under $30 offer stronger growth profiles:

1. Albertsons (ACI) – $21.93

• Why It’s Better:
• Revenue Growth: 10% in 2024, driven by its 45 million-strong loyalty program and digital sales.
• Institutional Backing: 70 hedge funds held ACI as of Q4 2024, compared to FLO’s 30.
• Analyst Love: J.P. Morgan’s $31 price target implies 41% upside from May 2025 levels.

2. The Honest Company (HNST) – $5.19

• Why It’s Hot:
• Q1 2025 Results: Revenue surged 13% to $97 million, with wipes sales up 40% and the Honest brand now the #1 natural wipes brand nationally.
• Valuation: Trading at just $5.20, HNST offers asymmetric upside if it can sustain margin expansion (gross margin hit 39% in Q1).

3. Where Food Comes From (WFCF) – ~$13.25

• Unique Angle:
• A verification services provider for food producers, WFCF benefits from rising consumer demand for transparency. Its Q4 2024 saw 8 institutional buyers, including Northern Trust and UBS.

The Bear Case Against FLO

• Long-Term Decline: Forecasts suggest FLO’s stock could drop to $10.69 by 2029, driven by macroeconomic headwinds and slowing bakery demand.
• Weak Technicals: The stock’s 100% bearish sentiment (based on technical indicators) and oversold RSI (33.25) may signal a short-term rebound but not a sustained rally.

Verdict: Buy for Near-Term Gains, but Beware the Long Game

Flowers Foods is a short-to-medium-term buy at $17.30, given its acquisition-fueled growth and potential 6.9% return by December 2025. However, its long-term trajectory—with a projected decline to $10.69 by 2030—demands caution for investors with a 5+ year horizon.

For those focused on under-$30 food stocks, Albertsons (ACI) and The Honest Company (HNST) currently offer stronger growth catalysts and institutional support. FLO, while undervalued, is best suited for traders willing to exit before the sector’s "snack recession" hits.

Final Call:
- Buy for a trade? Yes.
- Hold for a decade? No.
- Better alternatives? Consider ACI or HNST for higher upside.

Invest wisely.