Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• Price declined from 0.387 to 0.373 in 24 hours, with bearish momentum in late ET trading.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.
• Volume spiked in late ET, but price failed to hold key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction followed by expansion in early morning.
• Notable bearish engulfing and bullish doji patterns appeared in key timeframes.

Opening Narrative

Flow/Tether (FLOWUSDT) opened at 0.379 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.387 before closing at 0.373 on October 4 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour price action recorded a low of 0.367, with a total trading volume of 1,812,521.67 and a notional turnover of $698,817.60.

Structure & Formations

The price displayed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart at 17:15 ET and a bullish doji near 0.373 in the early morning. Key resistance levels appeared at 0.384–0.387, with support forming around 0.373–0.376. A breakdown below 0.373 could trigger further bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price traded below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, indicating short-term bearish bias. Daily MAs (50/100/200) all trended lower, reinforcing a bearish medium-term outlook. Price remains below all key moving averages, suggesting continuation of the current downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 in early morning trading, signaling oversold conditions and a potential rebound. However, the MACD remained in negative territory with bearish divergence, suggesting that any bounce may be short-lived. Momentum appears to be slowing but remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility showed moderate contraction between 23:00 ET and 00:45 ET before expanding again. Price remained within the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish pressure. A rebound to the upper band could signal a temporary pause, but a close above the 0.384–0.387 cluster is needed for a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged late in the day and into the early hours of October 4, coinciding with a breakdown below 0.376. However, the price failed to hold above 0.376, suggesting that the volume was bearish. Turnover was also elevated during these periods, confirming the significance of the breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 0.367 to 0.387, the 38.2% level sits at 0.377 and 61.8% at 0.381. The price found rejection at the 61.8% level and is now consolidating near the 38.2% level. A breakdown below 0.373 could trigger the next Fibonacci level at 0.363.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was proposed to trigger long entries when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low. Short entries are triggered when the 20-period SMA crosses below the 50-period SMA, with a stop-loss placed above the previous swing high. In this 24-hour period, such a strategy would have identified two potential short opportunities as the 20-period SMA fell below the 50-period SMA. The strategy appears to align with the bearish momentum seen in late ET and early morning trading, though it would require confirmation of a sustained break below key Fibonacci levels for a full entry signal.